Ether (ETH) has been on a bearish trend in recent days. The price of the asset fell by almost 8% at the end of the past week. However, fans of the second largest crypto on the market do not lack optimism regarding its short and medium term prospects. Throughout March, analysts continued to defend the idea of an imminent breakthrough for Ethereum crypto. This, based in particular on the Dencun update and the sustained enthusiasm for memecoins, among others. Recently, some elements suggesting that the 2e Quarter 2024 would be the period conducive to the surge in filtered ether. This is what we will talk to you about in this article.
Classic price trends from ether to 2e quarter
The date March 13, 2024 is memorable in the history of Ethereum. For the first time, the price of ether, its native crypto, crossed the threshold of $4,000! If since then, the crypto has lost around 17% compared to the current $3,315, the outlook is no less promising for ether. Analysts unanimously agree on a resumption of the crypto's upward momentum which could then set a new price record.
While we are not yet there, analysts are actively examining current, but especially past, trends to find elements that could support their projections. Just so, Ali, one of the most well-known crypto analysts on the market, found something that he shared. This is a trend that reveals some consistent and interesting facts about ether's bullish movements in recent years.
Indeed, historical data shows a consistent pattern of significant gains for Ethereum during the second quarter. This, with an average bull ratio of around 67.19%, for notable peaks of 453% in the second quarter of 2017 and 102.25% in the second quarter of 2019. Obviously, these figures have not left the crypto community indifferent especially as they highlight the potential for significant returns during this period.
Basically, ether's steady upward trend in the second quarter suggests a favorable investment environment during this period. Therefore, and banking on the lessons learned from past performance dynamics of Ethereum crypto, investors are optimistic for the second quarter of 2024. Many of them could bet on a remarkable and solid rise in ether at the price. of this period and position ourselves accordingly. However, there remains a question that must be asked: are these figures enough to conclude that ether would soar in the second quarter? This is not obvious.
Can we really foresee a rise in ether at 2e quarter ?
While the second quarter of 2024 is just beginning, the trajectory of the ether price is being particularly scrutinized by experts. This, through technical analysis used as a tool for predicting its movements. And what the on-chain data shows seems somewhat interesting.
According to experts, the price of ether is currently consolidating in a price range between $3,430 and $3,880, on a weekly basis. Crossing this level would certainly be a pivotal moment in the dynamics of the ether price. Such a scenario could indicate an upward trend, potentially propelling Ethereum crypto towards the $4,800 mark, in the wake of the bitcoin halving.
Moreover, the convergence of other factors is fueling speculation regarding its performance in the second quarter. These include Ethereum's technical indicators, supported by the overall perception towards the crypto market.
Additionally, the interaction between ether and bitcoin (BTC), often considered a leading indicator in the crypto industry, amplifies the anticipation surrounding the ether price trajectory. With the halving of bitcoin, attention will naturally focus on ether. Analysts and enthusiasts scan the slightest movements for clues about general market sentiment and potential investment opportunities. Overall, the ether price outlook for Q2 2024 is a function of all these factors. But there is one element that could wipe out all the current speculation regarding ether: a possible refusal of approval of an Ethereum spot ETF.
Uncertainty over the emergence of an Ethereum Spot ETF
The emergence of a spot Ethereum ETF is expected by financial and crypto players. But the introduction of this financial instrument is uncertain due to the dynamics of the crypto market. Indeed, numerous obstacles likely to delay approval beyond 2e quarter, are currently standing against this possibility.
As the May 2024 deadline set by the SEC to rule fast approaches, the prospects for approval in the second quarter are dimming. Not to mention that the SEC's minimal engagement with proponents of an Ethereum ETF, notably absent during the Bitcoin ETF deliberations, contributes to this delay.
A delay aggravated by the position of Gary Gensler, chairman of the SEC, who does not seem as favorable for the Ethereum ETF as it was for the Bitcoin ETF. This comes as there is pressure from figures hostile to cryptos, including Senator Elizabeth Warren, adding friction to the approval process for an Ethereum ETF.
In light of these complexities, it seems increasingly difficult to envisage the approval of an Ethereum ETF during the 2nd quarter of 2024. This will not be without consequences for the price dynamics of ether during this period. Some believe that if the price movement of ether struggles to remain above $3,300, a fall towards $3,000 is likely. Currently, Ethereum crypto is trading around $3,305 while showing little reaction to the Ethereum ETF announcements.
Conclusion
Ultimately, it should be noted that despite the recent downward momentum in ether, the outlook for the second quarter of 2024 remains optimistic. Historical trends, technical analysis and fundamental factors suggest significant upside recovery potential. However, the uncertainty surrounding the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF remains a major question mark. Regulatory hurdles and divergent opinions among regulators could delay this approval. Which could have repercussions on the dynamics of the ether price. In this context, investors should closely monitor developments in the crypto market. This, while ensuring they adjust their strategies accordingly.
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