ETF vs Halving – Which will have the most impact on Bitcoin?

Which event will ultimately have the most impact on the value of bitcoin? ETFs or “Halving” ?

Bitcoin ETF vs Halving

Bitcoin ETFs currently cause demand of around 14,000 BTC per business day. This should be clarified to remind you that ETFs do not trade on weekends.

Given that ETFs have absorbed 95,000 BTC since Thursday January 11, that gives us an average of approximately 10,000 bitcoins per day. This still represents a little more than ten times the number of BTC mined each day (900 bitcoins).

It is enormous. This demand is ten times higher than supply, which is however currently distorted by sales of the GBTC ETF. The exodus of Grayscale customers is causing sales of bitcoins which for the moment offset the purchases of BTC by the new ETFs.

For more information on this subject, don’t miss our article: When will the Bull Run resume? We explain why bitcoin is stagnating and how long this could last.

Another event that will soon impact the supply of bitcoin: “Halving”. In May, the reward gleaned by miners will decrease by half. Since 2023, miners receive 6.25 bitcoins per block of transactions. It will soon be 3,125 BTC, or 450 BTC per day.

So, while ETFs represent an increase in demand ten times greater than daily creation, halving is only a factor of two.

Which makes the CEO say to Blockstream Adam Back that halving will have a much smaller impact than ETFs on the price of bitcoin:

” Yes. and I think that once people calm down, we will see a rise before the halving because the ETF inflows are 30 times greater than the effect of the halving. Furthermore, many traditional financial institutions, guided by broker sentiment, are dynamic buyers.

However, if this analysis is valid in the short term, it must be remembered that halving is permanent. Not to mention the fact that it repeats itself every four years.

Conversely, purchases of bitcoins facilitated by ETFs will not last forever. We hope as late as possible, but this demand for 10,000 bitcoins/day will eventually subside. On the other hand, the reduction in supply via halving is permanent.

The lights are green and we are probably experiencing the last weeks of stagnation before the Bull Run resumes its rights. A new all-time high in sight before the end of the year?

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