The year 2025 promises to be favorable for the global economy, despite persistent challenges. As recession fears fade and inflation begins to normalize, several indicators suggest positive momentum for the months to come.
Resilient US consumption drives global growth
In New York, Wall Street economists observe with satisfaction the remarkable resilience of the American economy. The American consumer, the true engine of the world's largest economy, continues to demonstrate solid confidence despite the turbulence of recent years.
Retail sales are growing steadily, supported by a robust labor market where the unemployment rate remains historically low. “ The American economy continues to grow at a sustained pace, as it has for several yearss”, underlines David Kelly, chief strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.
Real wages are finally increasing faster than inflation, gradually restoring household purchasing power. This positive dynamic is expected to continue in 2025, providing a solid foundation for global economic growth.
Consumer confidence is also strengthened by the stabilization of energy prices. With U.S. oil production reaching record levels, analysts forecast an average gasoline price around $3.22 per gallon for 2025, marking a third straight year of moderating prices at the pump.
A more accommodating economy in perspective
The American Federal Reserve, after waging a determined fight against inflation, is beginning a welcome cycle of monetary easing. Three consecutive rate cuts have already been made, signaling a significant change of direction in monetary policy.
This shift should stimulate business investment and support the real estate market, two sectors which had been hampered by the rapid rise in interest rates. Analysts anticipate further rate cuts in 2025, which could further boost economic activity.
Financial markets have already started to factor in these more favorable prospects, even if caution remains in place regarding the valuations of certain sectors, particularly technology.
Promising structural reforms
The implementation of new economic policies suggests potential productivity gains. Initiatives to simplify regulations and speed up permitting processes could boost investment and innovation.
Glenn Hubbard, former dean of the Columbia Business School, is particularly optimistic about the modernization of the regulatory framework: “ The greatest productivity gains often come from these structural adjustments, even if they appear less spectacular. »
Challenges certainly remain, particularly around trade issues and the balance between growth and price stability. Nevertheless, solid economic fundamentals and ongoing policy adjustments provide an encouraging outlook for 2025.
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