As the 2024 American presidential election looms on the horizon, Donald Trump is back in action and does not hesitate to use controversial methods to try to ensure his re-election. In a recent message published on his social network Truth Social, the former tenant of the White House brandished a disaster scenario. The latter predicted that in the event of defeat the country would face a historic stock market crash, with devastating consequences.
A daring parallel with Black Thursday of 1929
To support his apocalyptic scenario, Donald Trump explicitly refers to Black Thursday on October 24, 1929. The New York Stock Exchange experienced a collapse of more than 12% in a single session, leading to the bankruptcy of thousands of investors. This event marked the start of the Great Depression, a major economic crisis of the 1930s.
By raising the specter of such a stock market crash, Trump is trying to present himself as the only bulwark against the abyss. According to him, the stock market is only high right now because people believe and expect him to win the 2024 election.
A risky strategy in the face of economic difficulties
Obviously, such a parallel is more a matter of political strategy than serious economic analysis. There is no indication that the election of Joe Biden or any other candidate would cause a stock market crash as violent as in 1929.
Nevertheless, this alarmist statement comes in an already degraded economic context in the United States. With record inflation, the threat of recession in 2023 and the end of the Fed’s ultra-accommodative policies, some investors are worried about a potential stock market crash.
Donald Trump’s chances of victory in 2024?
Despite his boasts, there is no guarantee at this stage that Donald Trump will manage to win the Republican nomination, then beat his Democratic opponent in 2024. His current legal troubles seriously jeopardize his chances.
Therefore, these apocalyptic predictions appear very risky. Even if markets anticipate and integrate economic policies into their valuations, multiple other factors move prices. There is no indication that Wall Street would collapse under a new president.
Through this alarmist message, Donald Trump is attempting a risky political move to ensure victory in 2024. But by irresponsibly waving the red rag of a major stock market crash, he is posing a threat that could turn against him. Especially if the markets were to take the opposite view of his disastrous predictions. His chances of re-election in the United States remain uncertain in any case. His most fervent admirers now hope that this release will not turn out to be a complete failure.
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