The price of the XRP intrigues, worried, and recalls bad memories. While some see it as the beginnings of a new flight, a recent analysis provides information on familiar schemes, the very people who preceded the collapses of 2018 and 2021. As the technical signals turn to orange, the threat of a scenario of denial (key step before each past Krach) resurfaces. In a climate in charge of expectations, on-chain data impose a serious reminder of reality.
Disturbing denial signals in on-chain data
The XRP has lost more than 40 % of its value since its summit at $ 3.40 reached in January 2025. Indeed, on-chain indicators are now alerting to a potential rehearsal of the worst lower episodes of its recent history.
The net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), published By the Glassnode analysis platform, again places the market in the so -called “denial” psychological zone, a stage historically identified as a precursor signal of strong corrections.
Thus, the NUPL of the XRP has once again entered the “denial” area, because the price is currently negotiated around $ 2.26 after a strong rally. This same indicator preceded a fall of 90 % in 2018, then a drop of 75 % in 2021, in contexts where the euphoria of investors had quickly turned into capitulation.
Such a alert occurs in a climate where the XRP had however experienced a spectacular ascent. In the space of two months, the crypto had recorded a rally of +585 %, supported by several fundamental catalysts. Among the elements having fed this excessive optimism, we can cite:
- Donald Trump's election to the American presidency, interpreted as a favorable signal for crypto industry;
- Speculations around a favorable regulation of the Ripple against dry affair, a litigation followed closely for more than three years;
- Rumors of approval of an XRP ETF in 2025, which maintained the idea of an imminent institutional adoption.
These elements favored a market feeling close to euphoria, then denial, phases identified as typical of cycle summits. Historically, these configurations have served as a prelude to the most violent reversals of the XRP course.
Ambitious, but controversial projections
Despite these warnings, some analysts continue to envisage an increase in the XRP. An algorithmic prediction model suggests a trajectory that leads up to $ 27 within 63 days.
This estimate is based on fractal reasons identified in previous cycles, but causes doubts within the Crypto community. The same model has experienced significant differences between forecasts and market realities in the past. No consensus emerges at this stage.
In contrast, the current technical analysis provides information on a possible breach of the upward trend if the XRP falls under certain critical levels. A new 40 % drop could then occur, intensified by the feeling of panic and leverage.
This double dynamic (between hopes of exponential growth and threats of brutal correction) underlines the extreme polarization of the market. For investors, reading the market becomes all the more complex as contradictory signals coexist and almost cancel themselves.
If the past does not guarantee anything, repetitive behavior patterns on the XRP deserve to be taken seriously. A rupture under current supports could catalyze a return to an area of high volatility, and undermine the most optimistic upholstery. It remains to be seen whether the resistance of bullish investors will be enough to avoid an already well -known scenario on the market.
Maximize your Cointribne experience with our 'Read to Earn' program! For each article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start accumulating advantages.
