Cryptos: Unexpected allies of HTS's victory in Syria

The Syrian civil war has revealed an unexpected new use of cryptos in armed conflicts, with increasingly close links between modern financial technologies and geopolitical issues. A recent investigation by blockchain analysis company Chainalysis sheds light on the involvement of the rebel group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which allegedly used crypto donations to finance a decisive offensive against the regime of Bashar al-Assad . These anonymous transactions, which have become common in conflict zones, raise questions about the place of these assets in crisis contexts and the risks they generate.

Cryptos at the service of HTS

The report published by Chainalysis on December 12, 2024 reveals a significant increase in crypto donations received by the rebel group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This increase was evident from November 27, when HTS launched a successful major offensive against the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Thus, these funds, collected anonymously via digital platforms, directly contributed to financing the organization's military operations. According to details provided in the report, a collection campaign began at the end of October and recorded seven donations before November 27. After this date, the number of contributions exceeded thirty. At the same time, another campaign, initiated once the offensive was launched, also collected more than 30 donations, which demonstrates the effectiveness of this type of financing.

Although the use of cryptos in armed conflicts is not new, the case of HTS is part of a critical trend. Groups such as the Islamic State have previously used crypto donations to support their activities, but HTS appears to have developed a more discreet and sophisticated approach. Present on the crypto scene since 2021, the group has relied on advanced money laundering techniques, making transactions particularly difficult to trace. These methods, although complex to detect, reflect an evolution of financial practices within conflict zones, where cryptos are becoming a tool of choice to circumvent traditional systems and anonymize financial flows.

Towards regulation of cryptos in conflict zones?

The revelations raise questions about the future of cryptos in regions marked by political and economic instabilities. While nations like Russia and Iran are showing increasing interest in adopting these assets, the rebel group HTS does not appear ready to maintain such a strategy in the long term. According to the Chainalysis reportthe defeat of the Bashar al-Assad regime complicates the possibility for HTS to maintain positive relations with countries like Russia or Iran, which have integrated cryptos into their economic and geopolitical strategies. This disruption reduces the prospects for sustainable adoption of these assets by HTS.

Furthermore, the lasting economic instability in the region, particularly in neighboring Lebanon, sheds light on the opportunities and challenges of decentralized finance. In a context marked by hyperinflation and the collapse of local currencies, cryptos could continue to offer viable alternatives for private uses. However, this democratization carries risks. While these technologies make it possible to bypass traditional banking systems and compensate for the collapse of fiat currencies, they also facilitate abuses, including illicit financing, money laundering and tax evasion.

These dynamics call for global reflection on the regulation of cryptos, particularly in conflict zones. The balance between innovation and security remains to be found to limit misappropriation and preserve the advantages of decentralized finance. Thus, the example of HTS shows that, without an appropriate regulatory framework, these assets can become dangerous tools in fragile environments, which reinforces the urgency of international cooperation to regulate their use.

The revelations relating to HTS shed light on the complex issues linked to the use of cryptos in conflict contexts. As these technologies continue to spread, they require the implementation of rigorous regulatory mechanisms to limit their abuses. While cryptos offer innovative solutions in fragile economic environments, their potential to be misused to finance illicit activities cannot be ignored. Close cooperation between the public and private sectors appears essential to regulate their use, prevent abuse and guarantee that they do not become tools of destabilization in already vulnerable areas.