CryptoQuant warns of a possible fall in bitcoin to $72,000 by the end of 2025

Bitcoin has just fallen back below $100,000, reviving doubts about the strength of its upward trend. Behind this symbolic threshold lies a weakened market, between slowing demand and macroeconomic tensions. For CryptoQuant, the threat is clear. If this support does not hold, BTC could plunge to $72,000 within two months. A worrying scenario, as technical and fundamental signals turn red.

Bitcoin could fall to $72,000

Bitcoin is crashing and extreme fear is returning to the market. “If the price fails to remain around $100,000 and breaks downward, the risks of a return to around $72,000 within one to two months become very real”has declared Julio Moreno, Director of Research at CryptoQuant.

The warning comes as BTC fell to $100,582 this Tuesday afternoon, marking a decline of more than 5.6% in 24 hours, and falling back below $100,000 for the first time since June. This decline is part of an overall market movement: the GMCI 30 index also fell by more than 9% over the same period.

This brutal reversal is largely explained by the domino effect triggered by the record liquidation of October 10, described by CryptoQuant as the largest in the history of the market. Indeed, more than $20 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated that day. Since then, several indicators have shown a general weakening of the upward dynamic:

• Declining spot demand, particularly in the United States;

• Negative ETF flows, signaling growing disinterest from institutional investors;

• Coinbase premium turned negative, revealing persistent selling pressure on US markets;

• CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index at 20, a level that reflects decidedly bearish market conditions.

These elements combined reveal a possible extension of the ongoing correction, with a threshold of $72,000 now identified as a target level in the event of a confirmed break of $100,000.

An increasingly heavy macroeconomic and structural climate

Beyond technical indicators and on-chain movements, the pressure exerted on bitcoin is also part of an unfavorable macroeconomic context. Gerry O'Shea, head of global analysis at Hashdex, points out that several exogenous factors are amplifying the current decline in cryptos.

“Recent speculation that the FOMC might forgo another rate cut this year, combined with concerns over tariffs, credit conditions and equity market valuations, has contributed to pushing markets lower.”he analyzes. These uncertainties weigh as much on cryptos as on stocks or raw materials, reinforcing a logic of investor disengagement.

Other more structural elements also influence the current trajectory of BTC. Still according to O'Shea, an increasing part of the selling pressure comes from long-term investors: historical holders who take profits in a context of past price increases, an expected phenomenon at this stage of market maturity.

However, he insists that this correction does not invalidate the long-term bullish scenario. “ETF flow and institutional adoption remains very strong this year. Large financial institutions continue to build dedicated crypto infrastructure »he specifies.

Therefore, if the $100,000 threshold remains a major psychological barrier, its breaking does not necessarily seal the fate of bitcoin in the long term. The gradual end of American monetary tightening, combined with an acceleration in corporate adoption, could even constitute a favorable basis for a future rebound. However, in the short term, the signals sent by the market call for caution, and reinforce the relevance of the warning launched by CryptoQuant.