The volatility of cryptos spares no one, and Solana (soil) is no exception. After reaching a hollow of 125 dollars on February 28, the native token of the Solana blockchain experienced a rebound of 17 %, which suggested a possible return around 180 dollars. However, this recovery is far from being acquired. Still back 50 % compared to its historic summit of $ 295, the ground faces several obstacles which could slow down its rise. Between the slowdown in its on-chain activity, the lack of demand on the derivative markets and the concentration of transaction costs in the hands of a handful of users, the Solana ecosystem vacillates. What are the signals that could trigger a Haussier rally?
A shortness of breath of the on-chain activity
The Solana blockchain has built its reputation on its speed and low transaction costs, which has attracted many users, especially in the world of the same and NFT. But for several weeks, this effervescence has fade. According to Defillama data, the transaction fees generated on Solana dropped by 73 % in a month, which reflected a decrease in user engagement.
This slowdown is also observed on the side of the most popular decentralized applications on the network. Jito, the main liquid staking platform, recorded a 56 % drop in its number of active addresses in a month, while Magic Eden, the flagship NFT Marketplace of the ecosystem, saw its activity fall by 38 %. Even Save (formerly Solend), which offers loan services, experienced a reduction of 42 % of its users.
These figures contrast strongly with those of other networks. On the basis, the layer 2 of Ethereum, the drop in the number of active users is only 2 % over the same period. Even Ethereum himself, however more expensive and slower, resists better with a drop of only 17 %. These differences suggest that the slowdown of Solana cannot be attributed solely to the bursting of the bubble of the same, but that it reveals a deeper shortness of the on-chain activity.
Structural obstacles and a lack of bull catalysts
Beyond the drop in activity on the blockchain, other factors slow down Solana's recovery potential. One of the most notable is the lack of interest of leverage traders. On the market for future soil, the rate of financing for perpetual contracts has remained negative in recent days. This means that open sellers are ready to pay to maintain their positions, a signal that translates a lasting lower feeling.
Another critical point: the concentration of transaction costs on a reduced number of crypto actors. According to an analysis relayed By Arndxt on social network X (formerly Twitter) on March 7, 2025, author of the newsletter “Threading on the Edge”, 95 % of the costs on Solana would be generated by only 1.3 % of users. These transactions are mainly due to MEV BOTS and Market-Masing firms like Wintermute, rather than a broad and diversified adoption. Such centralization exposes the network to dysfunctions in the event of withdrawal of these actors.
Finally, the absence of Solana in the portfolios of World Liberty Financial (WLF), a fund associated with President Donald Trump, also weighed on the asset. Although the Crypto Trump, a same launched on Solana, has experienced a certain hype, WLF chose to invest in Ethereum (ETH), Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC), ChainLink (link) and Aave (Aave), but not in Sol. This lack of allowance in a visible institutional portfolio can be perceived as a lack of recognition of Solana's long -term potential.
To hope to reconquer the $ 180, Solana will have to overcome several challenges. A resumption of on-chain activity, especially outside the crypto market of the same, would be a positive signal. However, an important announcement, such as the approval of an ETF Solana in the United States, could trigger a wave of purchases and force the sellers discovering to liquidate their positions, which would thus create a Squeeze short effect. For the time being, uncertainty dominates, and investors carefully scrutinize the next developments.
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