Crypto: Predictive markets ignite around the destiny of SBF

What if Sam Bankman-Fried finally escaped his 25 years in prison? Since Donald Trump granted a pardon to CZ, founder of the crypto exchange Binance, a crazy rumor has been growing: that of a possible presidential pardon for the former boss of FTX. Long considered absurd, the idea is gaining ground, driven by an explosion in betting on Polymarket.

The CZ effect: when one forgiveness leads to another?

Donald Trump's declaration in favor of Changpeng Zhao, former CEO of Binance, triggered strong reactions in the crypto sphere and within prediction markets.

By publicly stating: “They said what he did was not even a crime…I granted him a pardon at the request of many respectable people”the American president sent a strong signal to his pro-crypto base and, indirectly, to those who closely follow the Sam Bankman-Fried affair.

The impact of this speech was felt almost immediately on Polymarket, where speculation around a possible presidential pardon for SBF ran wild.

Here is the main elements facts observed:

• An immediate increase in bets on a pardon from SBF: the probability on Polymarket rose from 5.6% to 12% in a few hours, briefly reaching 19.1%, before falling back to 15.5%;

• The significant volumes committed: approximately $302,000 was bet specifically on the possibility of a pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried, with a total of more than $6.5 million placed on the various contracts linked to this theme;

• CZ's reaction: the Binance founder responded in few words about X, in response to Trump's announcement. This message was enough to galvanize speculation;

• Reception by traders: prediction markets immediately interpreted these signals as a political opening to pardons in the crypto world, in particular for major figures like SBF.

This succession of events shows how the political intervention of an actor as polarizing as Donald Trump can profoundly reconfigure the expectations of an ecosystem already sensitive to external signals.

Polymarket, between speculation and political signals

Beyond the announcement effect caused by CZ's grace, it is the very mechanics of prediction markets which deserves attention here. Contrary to a purely judicial or rational logic, these platforms like Polymarket react first to political, social and media signals, much more than to the real state of the procedures.

This is what several observers point out, for whom this outbreak reflects how prediction markets, motivated by sentiment, react more to political signals than to concrete legal advances.

Polymarket's expansion into the United States, facilitated by a CFTC approval and the recent $112 million acquisition of QCEX, has also amplified this dynamic. By benefiting from a more favorable framework, the platform has seen its activity grow rapidly, providing fertile ground for this type of highly reactive speculation.

This case reveals how the line between justice and politics is becoming blurred in the crypto world. If a pardon for SBF remains hypothetical, the current dynamic shows that perceptions, more than facts, can guide the scenarios. A new era is dawning, where speculation and power merge, as was the case with the bets on the presidential pardon of CZ.