Ethereum sees a 37% weekly decline following the overall crypto market decline. Let’s take a look at the future outlook for ETH.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Status
Following the official launch of Ethereum spot ETFs, ETH went into the red, sparking increasing selling pressure. Indeed, the crypto recorded a decline of more than 40% in two weeks, going from around $3,600 to $2,100. Note: this decline was fueled by the overall decline in the cryptocurrency market, due to poor economic results around the world, as well as significant geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran. Ethereum therefore broke its support at $2,800. It was around $2,100 that the crypto attracted buying interest that seems to persist until today.
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading just below $2,500. As encouraging as this may seem, continued buying support will be needed to counter ETH’s short-term bearish trend. As for the crypto’s medium-to-long-term trend, while it remains theoretically bullish, it is no surprise that there is uncertainty about its future. This is because Ethereum is making lower and lower lows and is below its annual VWAP as well as its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, seemingly ready to form a death cross. On the crypto’s momentum side, it is no surprise that it has been revised downward. This is reflected in the price of Ethereum itself as well as its oscillators being revised downward. Naturally, all of this leaves room for uncertainty about the crypto’s future price.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Now a trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of self-employed traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and friendly atmosphere.
Zoom on derivatives (ETHUSDT)
Ethereum’s decline has unsurprisingly led to a decrease in open interest on ETH perpetual contracts. This demonstrates a downward revision of speculative interest during the crypto’s recent fluctuations. The decline in CVD as well as the funding rate indicates a recent dominant selling sentiment on Ether-related derivatives. As for liquidations, we can observe significant liquidations of long positions, followed by short positions, illustrating pronounced volatility.
The heatmap of ETH/USDT liquidations over the past six months reveals that the liquidation zone identified between $2,800 and $2,400 has been reached. This does not appear to have attracted direct buying interest given the crypto’s reaction to it. At present, the notable liquidation zones are mainly located above Ethereum’s current price. Of note is the zone between $3,400 and $3,750, and further up, the most significant zone around $3,900 to $4,100. As the price approaches these levels, it could trigger a massive trigger of orders, increasing the risk of a period of heightened volatility for Ethereum. These zones therefore represent a crucial point of interest for investors.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Hypotheses
- If Ethereum's price holds above $2,100, we could anticipate a bullish continuation, causing the reintegration of $2,800. The next resistance to consider would then be around $3,100. If the bullish movement continues, this could suggest reaching $3,500, which would represent an increase of more than 41%.
- If Ethereum fails to hold above $2,100, we could see a return to $2,000. The next support to consider, if the bearish move continues, would be around $1,900. Further down, we can see the area of interest above $1,700, which would represent a decline of around 50%.
Conclusion
Ethereum suffered a sharp decline following the launch of Ethereum spot ETFs, amplified by economic and geopolitical factors. Despite some buying support, uncertainty persists regarding its future trend. Thus, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at different key levels to confirm or deny current assumptions. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential market “fake outs” and “squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve rapidly according to other more fundamental factors.
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