Crypto: Ethereum leaps by +25 % in August… But September could tip everything!

While Ether (ETH) crosses new heights with a surge of more than 25 % in August, investors wonder: are we witnessing a sustainable consolidation or a simple start before a correction? Carried by the influx in ETFs and a favorable macroeconomic climate, ETH again appeals to institutional investors. However, history tempers optimism. Since 2016, each rally in August has given way to a month in September. Will the current euphoria mark a rupture or will reactivate seasonal market mechanics?

History against Ether? A month of September at high risk

Since 2016, September has established itself as a real pitfall for Ether, in particular after solid performance in August, like its new historic summit.

THE Historical data compiled by Coinglass reveal a disturbing regularity: whenever Ether had a month of August Haussier, he dropped the following month.

Here are the three previous cases observed by analysts:

• August 2017: Ether jumped +92.86 % before collapsing by -21.65 % in September;
• August 2020: an increase of +25.32 %, followed by a decline of -17.08 % in September;
• August 2021: a new flight of +35.62 %, before a correction of -12.55 % in September.

Over the entire period 2016–2024, the average loss for the month of September was at -6.42 %, which makes it one of the most unfavorable months for the ETH price.

This is a trend all the more marked in the post-halving year, according to the analysis of the Cryptogoos trader. “”The seasonality of the ETH in September, during the years following a halving, is generally negative. This time will she be an exception?“, He posted on social network X this Friday.

This critical scheme occurs even as the Ether has a notable performance this month, carried by anticipations of lower rates following the comments deemed conciliatory from Jerome Powell to Jackson Hole. Despite this momentum, the specter of a seasonal reversal still hovers, like an alarm signal for experienced investors.

The ETF effect and the entry of companies: a paradigm change?

Unlike previous years, the month of August of this year was marked by notable structural developments on the Ether market, likely to qualify purely historical readings.

According to Farside, the ETF ETH spot recorded $ 2.79 billion in net entries Over the current month, while their Bitcoin equivalents accused $ 1.2 billion in net outputs.

This dynamic was described as a notable change by Nate Geraci, president of Novadius Wealth Management. It reflects an increasing interest of institutional investors for Ether, powered in particular by the sectoral diversification that it allows beyond the simple narrative of reserve of Bitcoin value.

This movement is corroborated by the activity of business cash. On August 11, the total of ETH held by companies via their balance sheets crossed $ 13 billion, according to data relayed by Satoshi Stacker.

Among the striking transactions is the purchase of $ 45 million from ETH by Tom Lee on behalf of Bitmine, bringing the company's detention to nearly $ 7 billion. This type of massive accumulation was not observable during the previous months of August Haussiers.

Moreover, Bitcoin domination is down 5.88 % over the last 30 days, signaling a redistribution of capital to other assets of the Crypto market, in the forefront of which Figure Ethereum.

These signals could indicate a regime change for the ETH market. If caution remains in view of the historical data, new structural factors, flows to ETFs, the appetite of institutional, a more diverse market dynamic, could amortize, even reverse, the downward trend observed in September in the past. However, only an effective decline in September will validate or not the hypothesis of a cycle tilting.