Faced with stubborn inflation, geopolitical tensions and unbridled monetary creation, investors are seeking solid refuge. Gold and bitcoin, long opposed, are now moving in tandem. One is a millennial stalwart, the other a digital outsider, but their curves meet at a historic level, reigniting the debate over bitcoin's role as digital gold.
In brief
- The correlation between Bitcoin and gold reaches 0.85, a historically high level that reflects a major shift in the perception of BTC.
- This merger takes place in a context of strong macroeconomic instability, where investors are looking for safe haven assets.
- Gold recently crossed $4,179 per ounce, driven by the debasing trade and the loss of confidence in fiat currencies.
- Industry figures like Ki Young Ju and Andrei Grachev point out that Bitcoin is now following a similar trajectory to gold.
An unprecedented correlation between bitcoin and gold
In a message published this Tuesday on X (formerly Twitter), Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, revealed a strong signal: the correlation between bitcoin and gold now exceeds 0.85, a historically high level.
“Gold continues to reach new all-time highs. The BTC–gold correlation is high; the digital gold narrative is still alive. The demand for inflation hedging is not dead »he said.
For comparison, this correlation was negative at -0.8 in October 2021, illustrating a complete reversal of market dynamics. The previous record dates back to April 2023 with a peak of 0.9.
This convergence comes against a backdrop of a surge in precious metals, traditionally used as a hedge against macroeconomic instability. The most recent data confirm this trend:
- Gold reached an all-time high of $4,179.48 per ounce, with an annual performance of +57%;
- The spot price settled at $4,128.49, while US futures for December rose to $4,158;
- Silver rose even more sharply, peaking at $53.60 before easing slightly to $52.27;
- This surge is fueled by what many analysts call the “debasing trade”a strategy aimed at guarding against monetary devaluation generated by policies of continuous issuance of liquidity.
The current strong correlation between bitcoin and gold therefore does not seem to be a coincidence. It is part of a dynamic where investors, faced with a loss of confidence in fiat currencies, are turning to assets perceived as sustainable refuges.
Towards an institutionalization of the digital gold thesis?
This rise in the correlation between bitcoin and gold is not just a cyclical phenomenon. Andrei Grachev, Managing Partner at DWF Labs, estimated that this dynamic reflects an evolution in the very perception of bitcoin by investors: “capital naturally flows towards assets perceived as stable reservoirs of value”.
In other words, institutional players no longer consider bitcoin solely as a speculative asset, but are starting to treat it with the same standards as those traditionally applied to gold.
Ben Elvidge, head of commercial applications at Trilitech, adds a strategic nuance to this change: “this is explained by the fact that its potential for added value has taken precedence over its ease of use as a means of payment”. He believes that the potential for capital appreciation currently outweighs its function as a means of payment. This remark underlines a discreet transition.
Bitcoin seems to be gradually abandoning its transactional vocation to adopt a more passive reserve role, like the yellow metal after the end of the gold standard, whose rush towards the latter could well herald the golden age of the crypto queen.
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