Cardano's native token, ADA, has been under pressure for several months. Despite this, large holders continued to increase their positions. Their steady buying suggests that confidence hasn't completely eroded behind the scenes, even if the overall market trend remains weak.
In brief
- Large holders have quietly accumulated 819 million ADA over six months and now control almost 70% of the circulating supply.
- The price of ADA fell by more than 71%, from $0.90 to $0.26 over the same period.
Whale Activity Intensifies Despite ADA Price Drop
Data shared on February 24 by blockchain analytics firm Santiment shows that large ADA holders have quietly strengthened their positions over the past six months. Addresses holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA accumulated an additional 819.4 million tokens over this period. At the current valuation, this represents approximately $213.9 million, a 1.6% increase in the total supply held by this group.
These major wallets now hold approximately 25.36 billion ADA, or nearly 70% of the circulating supply. This means that the majority of available ADA is concentrated in the hands of large investors.
This accumulation comes as the price of ADA has fallen sharply. Over the same six-month period, it fell more than 71%. going from $0.90 to $0.26. Such a discrepancy between price action and whale behavior usually attracts attention. Large investors tend to strengthen their positions during downturns, viewing lower levels as entry points. By removing tokens from active circulation, whales reduce available supply, which can add further upward pressure if demand stabilizes or increases.
Grayscale increases exposure to ADA
Alongside this on-chain activity, an institutional signal has also appeared. Grayscale Investments has adjusted the composition of its Smart Contract Fund, increasing ADA's share to 20.12%, up from 19.50%. Cardano now represents more than a fifth of the fund's portfolio.
Reallocations made by asset managers are closely monitored in the digital asset ecosystem. An increase in weighting does not guarantee an increase in price, but reflects a certain level of institutional conviction. Combined with on-chain accumulation, it strengthens the overall narrative around ADA's position.
The technical structure remains on a downward trend
Despite these signals, ADA's daily chart continues to reflect an overall bearish trend. The market continues to make lower and lower highs and lows, confirming this structure. A recent rebound around $0.25 provided short-term support, without calling into question the underlying dynamic.
Currently, the price is moving around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, corresponding to the 20-day moving average, which acts as short-term resistance. Tightening bands indicate a decline in volatility, a signal often a precursor to a sharp price movement. On the other hand, this indicator gives no indication of the direction of the future breakout.
Momentum remains slightly negative, with ADA trading below the mid-band and below the $0.30 threshold. A clear close above this level could pave the way for an advance towards the $0.33–0.36 area, corresponding to a potential relief rally. Conversely, a loss of support at $0.25 could extend the downtrend, with targets around $0.23 or even $0.20.
For now, ADA is in a consolidation phase within a broader downtrend. Whale accumulation and institutional portfolio adjustments indicate some underlying confidence, but the chart still requires confirmation. A breakout, either upward or downward, will make it possible to determine whether this gradual accumulation prepares a recovery or is part of a prolonged downward trend.
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