Despite some profits, the bullish pressure remains strong. A new record watches the bitcoin.
In short
- Israeli-Iranian strikes and the threat of closing the Strait of Ormuz boost Bitcoin in the face of inflation fears.
- An oil shock could push inflation to 5 %, strengthening the attraction of bitcoin as a refuge value.
- Institutions and certain countries accumulate Bitcoin, supporting its rise despite tourist profits over $ 105,000.
The Middle East on fire
The markets are nervous. In question, the surprise strikes of Israel against Iranian nuclear infrastructure in parallel with the assassination of nuclear generals and scientists.
Iran responded by launching the “rising lion” operation. Several strategic sites such as the Dimona nuclear reactor, the Tel Aviv Financial Center, the Defense Ministry, the military air bases, the Mossad HQ, Ben Gurion International Airport, the port of Haifa or a gas platform have already been struck.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promised a “severe response”:
“Don't think they [Israël] have struck and it's over. No. They sparked the war. We will not let them get out of it without consequences. »»
Uncle Sam has since rushed to the bedside of Benjamin Netanyahu who fled to Greece. By the way, the Israeli Prime Minister is still under an international ICC arrest warrant …
Donald Trump threatened Ali Khamenei in these words:
We know exactly where the “supreme leader” hides. […] We are not going to eliminate it, at least not yet.
Donald Trump
The fear is now that the United States provides military support. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned this Wednesday that any American intervention would provoke “total war” in the region.
Iran could decide to accentuate the pressure by closing the Strait of Ormuz where 20 % of the world's oil flows transit. Or 20 million barrels per day which represent more than 30 % of maritime oil flows.
These geopolitical tensions are blessed for Bitcoin since the economic consequences of a black scenario are very inflationary for the West.
Bitcoin and the black scenario
The closure of the straits of Ormuz and Bab El-Mandeb would be a very inflationary event. Oil prices could climb up to $ 120 a barrel. JPMorgan even talks about a scenario at 130 dollars.
Such an oil shock would soon have the world's food prices increase. This was the case in 2007 following the peak of conventional oil. The result was an increase of more than 20 % of the FAO food price index. Food prices are in fact a function of increasing the costs of fertilizers and fuel necessary for their transport.
Inflation could go back to 5 % worldwide in the scenario of a total blockade of the Strait. Unlikely, however. The reason being that the majority of oil is intended for Asia, and particularly of China, an ally of Persia:
Nevertheless, the fear of an inflationary shock is in all minds. No one has forgotten the monster inflation of the past five years. Here is Inflation figures in the United States over five years ::
- Medical care: +12 %
- Clothing: +14 %
- New cars: +21 %
- Food: +23 %
- Housing: +27 %
- Electricity: +37 %
- Transport: +49 %
- Gas: +54 %
- Petrol: +69 %
- Automobile insurance: +84 %
The figures are similar on the old continent, and often worse in the rest of the world.
It is therefore a safe bet that Bitcoin is experiencing a renewed interest from the masses wishing to protect himself from inflation. Especially since the bad press from which Bitcoin may have suffered gradually fades.
Institutions accumulate behind the scenes
While waiting for a renewed interest on the part of small carriers, the institutions continue their shopping. They are reassured by the United States which is about to strengthen their Bitcoins Strategic Reserve.
About 236 companies today hold more than 1.2 million Bitcoins, or around 5.7 % of the total supply. This BTC cash is up 20 % from one year to the next. And that after having doubled during the year 2024 alone.
In all, it is more than $ 1,500 billion that S&P 500 companies could place in Bitcoin. Microsoft and Facebook said no, but it is rumored that Amazon will get out of it and that Tesla could double the bet.
Note also that the US Senate has just passed in favor of the Genius law. It will cement the existence of stablecoins if the House of Representatives gives its green light. We are now awaiting the vote of Bitcoin Act which provides for the purchase of a million bitcoins.
In the same vein, note that South America is also on deck. The bill to place up to 5 % of Brazilian exchange reserves ($ 370 billion) is on the deputies. Brazil could become the second G20 country to make a reserve currency bitcoin. South Korea is also thinking about it.
Europe cannot say as much. The Czech Central Bank would like to take action, but the ECB and Christine Lagarde oppose it. In addition, the proposal to undermine bitcoins with the surplus of electricity from French nuclear power plants has just been dismissed by the Parliament. What a mess.
Overall, the horizon emerges. Tourists take their profits over $ 105,000, but the upward pressure remains strong.
Don't miss our article: Bitcoin: “thousands of companies” about to cross the Rubicon.
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