Managing the economy in wartime is an art. And Emmanuel Macron, who is preparing for any Russian possibility, must juggle finances to build military spending without scaring the French. He said it: No question of increasing taxes. But then, where to find the necessary billions? Between new savings products, targeted taxation and European contributions, the State explores several tracks. Meanwhile, Moscow does not slow down, and Europe wonders if it is ready to face the future.
War: the economy in France under pressure between savings and taxation of the rich
France on the verge of financial bankruptcy? Emmanuel Macron is not alarmed on this subject at the moment. His priorities are now on war alongside Ukraine against Putin. Thus, to finance military spending, his government is considering original solutions. The booklet Aalready used for social housing, could accommodate A new mission: Defense.
An idea that divides. “” I don't want my money to be used to finance war “, declares a skeptical architect. Others, like a Parisian retiree, are ready to play the game: ” We must all participate ».
But to mobilize the French, you still have to convince them. Philippe Crevel, economist, recalls that ” The saver looks at above all ». SO, A special defense product will see the daywith an attractive rate? In parallel, the Minister of the Economy, Eric Lombard, evokes A wealthy contribution. A heavier taxation on ” Those who have substantial savings Is on the table.
But how far will this taxation go? France, already in the grip of a deficit of 6.2 % of GDP, allow itself a capital flight?
Some figures to remember ::
- 413 billion euros of military budget for 2024-2030;
- 50.5 billion euros for the year 2024 alone;
- Europe could mobilize up to 150 billion in defense loans.
With these colossal amounts, the question persists: can France rearm without sacrificing other sections of its economy?
Military spending, a budget headache
Faced with an increasingly worried Europe, Emmanuel Macron pleads to bring military spending beyond 3 % of GDP. Some even evoke a transition to 5 %, if the United States decides to disengage from the security of the old continent.
“” We will have to go higher Recently said the French president.
But how to finance such a ambition?
The idea of taxing multinationals is excluded. The government prefers to close certain tax niches and attract private investors to a defense fund. But will banks and insurances follow? A meeting is scheduled for this month To convince them to inject capital into the arms industry.
Meanwhile, Europe is trying to harmonize its efforts. Ursula von der Leyen offers a new mechanism allowing EU countries to access Massive loans for defense. But between supporters of a European strategy and those that count on NATO, consensus is far from being found.
Germany and Poland are looking at Washingtonwhile France militates for European military autonomy.
What do we prefer: an American umbrella or a reinforced European army?
Russia in ambush: a threat not to underestimate
Moscow does not remain inactive. According to the latest report of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russia now devotes 6.7 % of its GDP to Defense, or 145.9 billion dollars. If we adjust in purchasing power parity, this is equivalent to $ 461.6 billion, more than all European military spending combined.
The Russian war effort does not stop there. Its military industry is running at full speed, reactivating old factories and mobilizing the private sector to compensate for the huge losses in equipment.
“” We are not ready for what awaits us in four or five years Already warned Mark Rutte, secretary general of NATO.
For their part, Europeans increase their defense budget, but is it sufficient? Estonia, Poland and Germany are in turn controlled. France hopes that its arms industry will benefit from this momentum, rather than seeing contracts go to South Korea or the United States.
Is the risk of a direct confrontation between Europe and Russia real? In any case, the speeches ignite. Already, the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, warns: ” An EU military contingent in Ukraine would mean direct war with Russia ».
And while some speak of negotiations, others already see a darker horizon.
For the past two years, many have announced the imminent fall in the Russian economy. However, it is good, despite ever heavier sanctions. But a blow arrived last December: Ukraine cut Russian gas, depriving Moscow of an essential economic pillar. So, is Russia as robust as it claims? The future will tell us.
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