Bitcoin could one day equal the capitalization of gold, estimated at around $30 trillion, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise. This scenario would imply a price close to $1.5 million per BTC, but is based on a historical comparison and not a short-term forecast.
In brief
- According to Matt Hougan of Bitwise, Bitcoin could reach a capitalization of $30,000 billion, comparable to that of gold.
- This scenario would correspond to a theoretical price of around $1.5 million per BTC.
- Bitcoin ETFs could drive institutional adoption and support long-term demand.
- The limited supply of 21 million BTC could reinforce upward pressure on prices.
- Matt Hougan favors a long-term vision, without setting a date for achieving this objective.
Bitwise Compares Bitcoin to Gold After ETF Launch
Matt Hougan bases his reasoning on the trajectory followed by the gold market since the appearance of its first exchange-traded funds in the United States. When SPDR Gold Shares was launched in 2004, the capitalization of the precious metal reached approximately $2.5 trillion.
More than twenty years later, this value is around $30,000 billion, according to the estimate used by the head of Bitwise. The arrival of ETFs facilitated access to gold, because investors were able to gain exposure to it from a securities account without directly purchasing or holding bullion.
Hougan sees a comparable situation for bitcoin. When bitcoin spot ETFs were authorized in the United States in January 2024, the cryptocurrency was already a market close to $1 trillion. Its capitalization then temporarily crossed 2000 billion.
Matt Hougan has declared in a video relayed on October 9:
I think it could easily do what gold did, hit $30 trillion, which makes for a pretty interesting price target
Above all, this comparison suggests that ETFs could gradually broaden the investor base. It does not guarantee that bitcoin will replicate the past performance of gold.
A capitalization of 30,000 billion would give a BTC of 1.5 million
Bitcoin was trading around $83,000 at the time of the declaration, for a capitalization close to $1,650 billion. Reaching 30,000 billion would therefore require a multiplication of its total value by around 18.
With nearly 20 million bitcoins already in circulation, such a capitalization would correspond to a theoretical price of around $1.5 million per unit. This calculation remains slightly lower if we use the maximum limit of 21 million BTC, which will however only be reached around 2140.
This amount is not the official goal of a Bitwise fund. Hougan also did not announce a precise date for his 30 trillion scenario. Instead, he recommends evaluating bitcoin over a long period of time, up to ten years.
In March 2026, the manager presented another hypothesis to justify a million dollar bitcoin. He then estimated that the combined gold and BTC market could reach $121 trillion in ten years if its historic growth continued. Bitcoin should capture around 17% to exceed $1 million.
These projections are therefore based on two conditions: a continued expansion of the global market for stores of value and an increase in the share occupied by bitcoin.
ETFs can reduce the supply available in the market
Spot bitcoin ETFs allow institutional investors, financial advisors and savers to gain exposure to BTC without managing a digital wallet. This simplicity could support demand in the long term, according to Bitwise.
The maximum number of bitcoins remains limited to 21 million, while the issuance of new units decreases during each halving. If purchases of ETFs permanently exceed the quantity put up for sale by holders, the scarcity of available supply may exert upward pressure on the price.
However, this mechanism does not work in a linear fashion. Rising prices can prompt incumbent investors to sell, while large outflows from ETFs can reinforce corrections. Institutional demand therefore does not eliminate cycles or volatility.
Bitwise also defends the status of bitcoin as a digital store of value. This function remains contested due to its shorter history, its strong price variations and its behavior sometimes close to risky technological assets.
Investor behavior remains the main risk
Matt Hougan doesn’t see technical issues as the primary threat to his script. Instead, he cites the behavior of investors, notably their difficulty in maintaining their positions during sharp declines.
Bitcoin has already undergone several corrections greater than 70% during its history. The use of leverage can further magnify losses and cause liquidations before a possible market recovery.
A capitalization of 30,000 billion also assumes that the authorities continue to accept the integration of bitcoin into the traditional financial system. Stricter regulations, a lasting decline in demand, or BTC’s inability to gain share over gold could invalidate this hypothesis.
The Bitwise scenario thus illustrates the theoretical potential of bitcoin rather than an assured destination. Between its current capitalization and that of gold, the gap remains greater than 28,000 billion dollars.
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