As I indicated in my analysis last week, if Bitcoin manages to close above our daily resistance zone, the next target would be between $68,000 and $70,000. Today, this is exactly what we are seeing. The price is now moving above this resistance with a return of buying pressure. This is a first positive signal, but it is still too early to speak of a real change in trend.
In brief
- Bitcoin is trading above major resistance, with a target between $68,000 and $70,000.
- Bitcoin ETFs are recording positive inflows, but still insufficient to confirm a massive return from institutional investors.
- The weekly EMA 200, close to $68,000, constitutes the decisive technical level to validate or not a bullish reversal.
For now, the scenario remains the same: as long as Bitcoin maintains this zone, a continuation towards $68,000-70,000 remains possible. On the other hand, if the price quickly goes back below this resistance, you will have to remain cautious, because it could simply be a false breakout.
ETF flows
Looking at Bitcoin ETF flows, we see several consecutive days with capital inflows. This is a positive signal, but the amounts still remain relatively modest and are far from the volumes that institutional investors have accustomed us to during real accumulation phases.
For now, I view these purchases as an early sign of interest, but not yet proof that big hands are aggressively returning. To confirm a real change in sentiment, we will need to see much larger and, above all, regular entries over the next few sessions.
The 200 moving average EMA
Looking at Ema200 week, one element particularly catches my attention: Bitcoin is gradually approaching the EMA 200 which is at $68,000, a level which often plays a key role during major trend changes.
If the price manages to close above this moving average, the scenario could become much more bullish than my first target of between $68,000 and $70,000. This would be a signal that buyers are actually starting to regain control of the market.
On the other hand, as long as this zone is not crossed, I remain cautious. On a macro scale, my reading of the market remains bearish. A rejection below the 200 EMA could quickly send Bitcoin back towards the price levels it has been from in recent weeks.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our ‘Read to Earn’ program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
