Bitcoin: Three factors complicate the market outlook in November

Bitcoin enters November under pressure after losing more than 3.5% since the start of October. The outflows recorded by ETFs, the rise in the risk of rising US rates and the surge in oil constitute its three main tests.

Bitcoin ETFs See $635 Million Outflow

Bitcoin is trading around $80,800 on October 25, after briefly falling below $80,000 the day before. The crypto is thus approaching its second consecutive negative month of October, while this period is traditionally considered favorable by investors.

Caution was also evident in US spot Bitcoin ETFs. These products recorded $635.6 million in net outflows on October 22. This is their largest daily withdrawal since June 25.

Three factors could now determine the evolution of bitcoin in November:

• ETFs must regain regular inflows to support institutional demand;
• The risk of a further rate hike from the Federal Reserve is growing;
• Oil exceeds $117 and could fuel US inflation.

The October 22 session erased some of the entries recorded the previous days. BlackRock’s IBIT fund lost $254.1 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC suffered 217.5 million withdrawals. ARKB, offered by Ark Invest and 21Shares, saw an outflow of 109.4 million.

However, this day is not enough to prove a lasting withdrawal of institutional investors. Between October 19 and 22, Bitcoin ETFs maintained a positive balance of approximately $439 million thanks to two strong inflow sessions. On October 23, releases then reached 137.9 million. The flows are therefore unstable, rather than uniformly bearish.

Inflation revives the threat of a rate hike

The second test comes from American monetary policy. The probability given by the market to a rate hike by the Federal Reserve exceeded 10%, compared to around 5.5% a day earlier.

This development remains in the minority: the main scenario is not yet that of recovery. It nevertheless shows that some investors are reconsidering the path of rates after the latest price data.

American inflation reached 3.7% year-on-year in September. The consumer price index also increased by 0.6% over one month, after an increase of 0.4% in August. Gasoline jumped 9.1% and accounted for more than half of the monthly price increase.

Higher rates generally weigh on bitcoin and other risky assets. They increase bond yields and reduce the relative attractiveness of investments that do not provide guaranteed income. They can also limit the liquidity available for speculative investments.

The market will therefore monitor the upcoming statistics on employment, inflation and consumption. A new upside surprise would reinforce monetary risk. Conversely, a slowdown in prices could reduce this pressure before the next Fed meeting.

Oil at $117 weakens the bullish scenario

The third risk concerns energy. Brent crude rose above $117 a barrel for the first time since March 19, amid heightened tensions between the United States and Iran. It is thus approaching its annual peak.

This rise can affect bitcoin in two ways. It first reinforces inflationary pressures by increasing transport and production costs. It then fuels risk aversion when investors fear an extension of geopolitical tensions or disruptions in global supplies.

The 17% decline recorded by bitcoin in November 2025 fuels the comparisons. This drop constituted its worst performance for this month since 2019. However, it does not allow us to conclude that there was ” curse “ of November.

History even offers several counterexamples. By November 2024, bitcoin had risen by more than 37%. Its monthly performance depends more on liquidity conditions, institutional flows and the economic environment than on the calendar.

The thresholds of 80,000 and 75,000 dollars will now serve as supports to watch. To avoid the risk of a further marked decline, bitcoin will above all have to reconquer the $85,000 zone, while ETFs will have to return to more constant inflows.