Bitcoin begins a decisive week around $80,000. It simultaneously concentrates the average purchase price of corporate treasuries, significant hedging in the options market, and the last technical defense before a deeper bearish zone.
In brief
- Bitcoin is moving around $80,000, a crucial threshold for the rest of its trajectory.
- A drop below $79,000 could accelerate its decline towards $75,000.
- The Fed’s decision and the results of the technology giants could increase volatility.
- The expiration of $11.7 billion in Bitcoin options on October 30 is another major event.
- A return above $83,000 would weaken the bearish scenario and encourage a rebound.
The 80,000 dollars becomes a three-dimensional threshold
Bitcoin is moving around $80,500 after the failure of its rebound towards $85,000. On the daily chart, sellers maintain the advantage as long as the price remains below the area between $81,500 and $82,000.
A lasting break below $79,000 to $80,000 would weaken the ascending channel observed since September. It would first expose the $78,000 and $75,000 areas, where buyers had previously strengthened their positions.
The current level, however, concentrates three different issues:
- The $79,500 to $80,000 area represents immediate technical support;
- The average acquisition price of companies holding bitcoin would be close to $80,000;
- A high concentration of protection options also lies around this threshold;
- Leveraged positions could be closed between $78,500 and $79,000;
- A rise above $83,000 would weaken the bearish scenario.
Companies that have built up cash in bitcoin would, on average, have a capital loss of less than $80,000, according to Glassnode estimates. This situation would not automatically force them to sell. However, it could complicate their next fundraising and reduce their ability to continue their purchases.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen places more importance on the weekly close below $83,000. He clarified:
This scenario becomes obsolete if bitcoin goes back above $83,000 and stays there.
This terminal therefore represents the first level necessary to reestablish trust.
The Fed opens a sequence of four close events
The week will not be limited to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. Four major events will follow one another between October 28 and 30, without giving the market much time to absorb each piece of information.
The Fed will make its decision Wednesday October 28. A large majority of economists surveyed expect the key rate to remain within its range of 3.75% to 4%. The issue will mainly concern the speech of its president, Kevin Warsh, and the indications concerning the December meeting.
A few hours later, Alphabet and Microsoft will release their quarterly results. Amazon will follow on October 29. These announcements will count for bitcoin, whose variations have recently followed those of technology stocks. The Nasdaq lost 2.6% on Thursday, its worst session since June, amid concerns about spending on artificial intelligence.
New US on-chain inflation data will then be published on October 29. Their arrival after the Fed meeting creates a particular delay: the central bank will make its decision before having this new information. A statistic higher than expected could therefore immediately change expectations for December.
Finally, approximately $11.7 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire on October 30. Of this total, nearly 4.5 billion concern bullish bets of between 90,000 and 100,000 dollars, levels that have become difficult to reach a few days before the deadline.
Options can amplify movement in both directions
The concentration of positions explain why the next move could be more brutal than the current price suggests. Below $80,000, a large pocket of fragile bullish positions appears between $78,500 and $79,000. Their forced closure could accelerate a decline towards $75,000 to $78,000.
The mechanism also works upwards. A recovery of $81,500 would place bitcoin facing a first concentration of short positions around $82,000 to $82,500. Their closure could favor a return towards 84,000 or 85,000 dollars.
Oil adds one last variable. Brent ended the week at $116.72, its highest level in six months. A further increase would fuel inflationary fears and reinforce expectations of monetary tightening in December.
The most likely scenario is therefore not necessarily an immediate fall or a linear rebound. The market could initially remain locked between $79,000 and $83,000, before the Fed, tech results and options expiration cause an exit from this zone. The direction of this breakout will determine whether $80,000 becomes a floor again or turns into resistance.
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