While all eyes are on bitcoin, which is hovering around $95,000 after failing to cross the symbolic $100,000 mark, data indicates that the flagship crypto is far from having reached its peak. Unlike previous bullish cycles marked by frenetic activity by individuals, this market now seems dominated by institutional investors, with unprecedented dynamics.
An upward dynamic driven by institutions
Recent analysis from CryptoQuant reveals an unusual picture in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Indeed, the current cycle is marked by a contrast with the previous peaks of 2017 and 2021, where retail investors held up to 90% of positions. Today, this figure is struggling to reach 50%, with a more modest participation from small investors. Since October, individuals have reduced their positions by 41,000 BTC, while institutional investors, notably through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), have increased their holdings by 130,000 BTC.
This shift in actors marks a new era for bitcoin. “Previous bull cycles ended when individuals were buying aggressively, which is not the case today,” precise CryptoQuant. This lack of frenzied activity could indicate that the market has not yet peaked, suggesting significant potential for growth.
Towards an ambitious goal of $146,000
Despite recent corrections, projections remain optimistic. CryptoQuant's realized price model places bitcoin's theoretical target at $146,000 for this cycle. This threshold corresponds to the ceilings observed during previous periods of overheating, notably in April 2021. However, bitcoin remains far from these extreme levels. The overvaluation indicator, the P&L Index, confirms that the market remains in a healthy valuation zone, with room for improvement.
Furthermore, the implications of this configuration are multiple. Some observers predict a correction of around 30% before bitcoin exceeds six figures sustainably. Such a decline could reinforce accumulation by major players, which would consolidate the basis for a gradual ascent. If institutional dominance is confirmed, it could usher in a new phase of stability, which would distance crypto from exacerbated speculative fluctuations.
With a market largely influenced by institutions, bitcoin could experience a structural evolution. The reduction in the participation of small investors modifies the usual dynamics and reinforces a perception of a safe haven and diversification asset. However, this transition also poses challenges: the market's ability to maintain sustained growth without mass adoption remains an open question.
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