Global crises reshuffle the market cards, but rarely in the expected direction. As investors instinctively turn to gold or defensive assets, a study from Mercado Bitcoin reveals a counterintuitive reality: bitcoin outperforms after major shocks. Behind its initial volatility, the flagship crypto follows a unique trajectory that questions traditional reflexes. This dynamic, observed in several recent episodes, could well redefine the reading of the markets in periods of instability.
In brief
- Study Finds Bitcoin Outperforms Gold, Stocks After Global Crises.
- Numerical data shows significant gains for bitcoin over 60 days after major shocks.
- The markets first react with a general fall linked to a need for liquidity.
- Bitcoin is following a different trajectory, with a stronger rebound than traditional assets.
Bitcoin outperforms traditional assets after shocks
A study by the Mercado Bitcoin group reveals a recurring trend: after major events like the COVID-19 pandemic or American trade tensions, bitcoin significantly outperforms traditional assets.
Data observed over 60-day periods shows significant differences:
- After the announcement of American customs tariffs: bitcoin +24%, against gold +8% and the S&P 500 +4%;
- During the initial COVID-19 shock: bitcoin +21%, with lower performance for other assets.
This behavior does not manifest itself immediately. The study highlights that during the early phases of a crisis, all assets experience downward pressure due to a widespread need for liquidity. As explains it Rony Szuster, Head of Research at Mercado Bitcoin: “It’s like watching the first few minutes of a film and thinking you already know the ending”. This observation cautions against hasty interpretations of initial market reactions.
An asset that bounces back differently in the face of current tensions
The most recent data confirm this dynamic in a tense geopolitical context. During the tensions between the United States and Iran, bitcoin rose 2.2%, while gold fell around 11% and the S&P 500 fell 4.4%. This discrepancy underlines a trajectory specific to bitcoin, distinct from assets traditionally perceived as safe havens.
Beyond these episodes, the study recalls that bitcoin remains the best performing asset of the last decade, despite persistent volatility. This singularity is based on a two-stage dynamic: an initial fall linked to liquidity constraints, followed by a marked rebound which exceeds other asset classes.
These elements open up a reflection on the evolution of the role of bitcoin in investment strategies. Rather than an immediate refuge, it could establish itself as a recovery asset, capable of capturing post-crisis recovery phases. Such a transformation could gradually modify investors' choices in the face of future global shocks.
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