Bitcoin: Strategy falls, but Cantor continues to believe in it

In the midst of crypto turmoil, Cantor Fitzgerald springs a surprise. The investment bank has slashed its price target for Strategy, while saying fears of forced liquidation are overblown. A decision that raises questions, since trategy is betting everything on bitcoin. What is behind this downward revision, and what are the real risks for investors?

Cantor Fitzgerald halves Strategy target

Cantor Fitzgerald shook the markets by lowering his price target for Strategy from $560 to $229, a drop of 60%. A rare decision, even in a sector as volatile as that of cryptos. This revision comes as Strategy (MSTR) shares have lost 35% since the start of the year and 27% over the last month. With a market capitalization of $53 billion, the company holds more than 650,000 bitcoins, valued at around $55.7 billion at current prices.

This Cantor Fitzgerald drops 60% on MSTR is partly explained by the fall in the price of bitcoin, from $126,000 in October to around $86,000 at the start of December 2025. Worse still, Strategy faces a major regulatory risk. Indeed, the MSCI index plans to exclude companies whose assets are more than 50% in crypto. A decision which could lead to forced sales of MSTR to the tune of $2.8 billion.

Strategy: why Cantor remains optimistic despite everything

Despite the drastic revision of its price target, Cantor Fitzgerald maintains an optimistic view on Strategy. The bank highlights several key strengths of the company, including:

• The liquidity reserve of $1.44 billion, raised in fiat currency and not bitcoin;
• The ability to issue new shares to finance itself, reducing the risk of forced sale of its BTC holdings;
• THE ” leveraged bitcoin beta » from Strategy, a stock whose valuation depends almost entirely on the price of bitcoin.

Furthermore, Cantor Fitzgerald emphasizes that fears of liquidation would only be justified in the event of an extreme crash in bitcoin, with a fall of 90%! An unlikely scenario according to the bank's analysts. Additionally, the bank views the recent correction as a healthy phase of consolidation, necessary before a sustainable recovery.

Bitcoin: how its price dictates market decisions

The price of bitcoin plays a central role in stock market valuations, and Strategy is the perfect example. The correlation between the price of BTC and that of MSTR is striking: when bitcoin falls, MSTR collapses. In November 2025, record outflows of $3.6 billion from bitcoin ETFs accelerated the decline of MSTR and the entire crypto sector. A dynamic that shows to what extent bitcoin influences the decisions of investors and analysts.

Furthermore, the decisions of analysts and indices like MSCI are directly influenced by the volatility of bitcoin. Therefore, a price recovery above $100,000 could revive MSTR and ease regulatory fears. Conversely, a further decline would increase pressure on Strategy and accelerate its exclusion from the indices.

Cantor Fitzgerald sent a clear message: Michael Saylor's company is not in immediate danger, but its future remains closely linked to that of bitcoin. Between strong liquidity and regulatory risks, the company embodies the challenges and opportunities of a maturing crypto market. And you, would you be ready to bet on Strategy despite the uncertainties?