Bitcoin and Ether are showing early signs of a shift in investor behavior, even as overall market conditions remain weak. Long-term Bitcoin holders are reducing selling pressure, while large Ether holders are increasing their positions. However, prices remain under pressure due to caution, macroeconomic risks and year-end positioning.
In brief
- Long-term Bitcoin holders halted selling after months of distribution, reducing supply pressure despite still bearish market conditions.
- Ether whales recently added around 120,000 ETH, bringing large holders' share of the total supply to almost 70% and signaling growing confidence.
- Bitcoin prices remained volatile last week as holiday fears, leverage and cautious sentiment kept traders on the sidelines.
- US-led selling and year-end rebalancing continue to weigh on crypto markets, limiting gains despite signs of changing investor behavior.
Holder Activity Indicates Divergent Trends Between Bitcoin and Ether
Bitcoin wallets holding coins for at least 155 days have been reducing their balances consistently over the past six months. Holdings increased from around 14.8 million BTC in mid-July to around 14.3 million in December. This sales pace now appears to be slowing. Crypto investor Ted Pillows noted that long-term holders stopped selling for the first time since July, sparking expectations of a short-term relief rally.
Large holders often play an important role in shaping market trends. Their activity can influence liquidity, sentiment and short-term price movements. A pause in selling by long-term Bitcoin investors may help limit downward pressure, even if overall market conditions remain uncertain.
As Bitcoin sell-off declines, Ether whales are moving in the opposite direction. Data from CryptoQuant, cited by Milk Road analysts, shows that large Ethereum holders added around 120,000 ETH over the past week.
Addresses holding more than 1,000 ETH now control nearly 70% of the total supply, a share that has been rising since late 2024. Analysts said this continued accumulation suggests the market may not fully reflect the expectations of large investors.
BTC Faces Key Test as Year-End Positioning Limits Buying Interest
Former BitForex CEO Garrett Jin also pointed to changing capital flows. He observed that gains in metals like silver, palladium and platinum appear to be losing momentum, with funds starting to flow back into crypto markets, including Bitcoin and Ether.
Several factors are shaping current market conditions:
- Long-term Bitcoin holders have halted the sell-off after months of constant distribution.
- Ether whales are increasing their share of the total supply via recent purchases.
- Trader sentiment remains cautious after a volatile holiday trading period.
- High levels of leverage continue to add downside risk during price swings.
- Year-end portfolio rebalancing limits strong buying interest.
Bitcoin has traded between $86,744 and $90,064 over the past week. Santiment analysts reported that prices rose over the Christmas period despite increased fear, uncertainty and doubt. After briefly rising above $90,000, Bitcoin fell back below $87,000, leading traders to reduce their exposure again. Santiment added that such moves often run counter to the predominant feeling.
Market observers also cited leverage, geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty as factors weighing on prices. THE technical indicators suggest that recent multi-month corrections could reset conditions for a potential rebound early next year. Nonetheless, Bitcoin must rise by more than 6% to avoid a rare negative annual close after a halving event.
Selling pressure from US-based traders could also affect prices. Data from CoinGlass shows that Coinbase's Premium Bitcoin Index remained negative, signaling weaker demand on US exchanges. A negative reading often signals a reduction in risk appetite and a more defensive investor posture, adding an additional challenge to any near-term recovery.
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