The disappearance of 30,000 Bitcoin wallets fuels the idea of a capitulation of individuals, at a time when Galaxy recommends accumulating BTC. Compared to the approximately 60 million addresses still active, this decline only represents around 0.05% of the total and is not enough to confirm a market turnaround.
In brief
- Bitcoin has lost 30,000 wallets since October 16, or only 0.05% of the total.
- This drop could reflect weariness among small holders, without confirming a general capitulation.
- Galaxy believes that the bear market ended in June and that Bitcoin is going through an accumulation phase.
- Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed around 87,000 BTC since June, despite recent erratic flows.
- Reducing speculative positions could limit the risks of cascading liquidations.
The drop in the number of portfolios remains marginal
Since October 16, the number of Bitcoin addresses with a positive balance has decreased by 30,000, to almost 59.95 million, according to Santiment data. This development comes as BTC struggles to move away from the $80,000 zone sustainably.
Santiment interprets this decline as a possible manifestation of weariness among small holders. Their departure could constitute a contrary signal: when the least patient investors sell, the downward pressure can gradually exhaust itself.
THE numbers must however be placed in context:
- The 3,000 missing addresses represent approximately 0.05% of the total;
- A Bitcoin address does not necessarily correspond to a person;
- An investor can control multiple portfolios;
- A platform can pool the bitcoins of thousands of clients;
- The movement of funds does not prove that they were sold.
The observed variation therefore remains too weak to demonstrate a general capitulation. It could come from small holders having liquidated their positions, but also from a technical consolidation of assets in a reduced number of addresses.
The indicator also does not specify the quantity of bitcoins involved. Closing 30,000 wallets containing a few thousand satoshis would have less influence on the market than selling a single address with several thousand BTC.
Galaxy sees cleansed market after speculators leave
Galaxy’s analysis does not rely on decreasing the number of wallets. The company considers that the bear market likely ended in June, when bitcoin fell below $58,000. Since this low, its price has rebounded approximately 38%.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, says Bitcoin is now going through an accumulation phase comparable to those that preceded its former rises. He explain :
We believe that the bear market ended in June and that bitcoin is in the accumulation phase that preceded each previous advance.
The recovery above the 50-week moving average constitutes its main technical argument. Bitcoin has recorded five consecutive weekly closes above this line after spending 44 weeks below it. Galaxy sees this as a sign of a more lasting change in trend.
Speculative positioning has also become lighter. Managers’ net long exposure to CME Bitcoin futures contracts has fallen 57% since the all-time high week. Several trading companies have simultaneously reduced their positions in ETFs.
“The fast money is gone, the base remains”summarizes Alex Thorn. This reduction in leverage can make the market less vulnerable to cascading liquidations, without guaranteeing a further increase.
Price and ETFs have yet to confirm accumulation
The purchases made since June give more weight to the thesis of an accumulation. According to Galaxy, spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed approximately 87,000 BTC since the market low. This request represents almost three times the number of disappeared wallets, even if the comparison remains imperfect since it pits bitcoins against addresses.
Short-term flows nevertheless remain irregular. US ETFs received $110.34 million on Monday, but their monthly balance sheet remains negative by more than $200 million. On the corporate side, Strive purchased 6,182 BTC for $511.4 million, while Strategy refrained from adding new bitcoins.
The market therefore does not yet show uniform accumulation. Some players are strengthening their positions, others are withdrawing and small portfolios are shrinking slightly. The stability of bitcoin around $80,000 reflects this provisional balance.
Two levels will make it possible to decide between the scenarios. A return above $82,500 would support the hypothesis of a local bottom. A weekly close below $76,540, followed by an inability to recover this threshold for a month, would, however, invalidate Galaxy’s technical analysis.
The 30,000 missing wallets thus reflect an evolution in the behavior of holders, but not a confirmed reversal. ETF flows, leverage reduction and holding of supports offer more relevant indications to judge whether Bitcoin has truly entered an accumulation phase.
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