While bitcoin briefly returned above $86,000, a dissonance persisted: the US dollar remained strong. This force, usually unfavorable for risky assets, has not however curbed the upward momentum of BTC. Is this a real signal of recovery or a simple technical upsurge masking underlying weaknesses?
In brief
- Bitcoin crosses $86,000 again, despite a tense macroeconomic context.
- This rebound comes as a surprise as the US dollar hits a six-month high, driven by employment figures well above expectations.
- Market reaction is based on hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, although signals from the Fed remain divided.
- Behind the apparent euphoria, structural weaknesses could threaten Bitcoin's upward trend.
Bitcoin rebound: unexpected support from the dollar?
Bitcoin started the week on a bullish note, returning above $86,000 after a sharp fall on Friday to $80,600, its lowest level since April.
This rebound occurs in a particular macroeconomic context, because the data published on November 20 on employment in the United States created a surprise, and the markets reacted quickly, both on traditional currencies and on cryptos.
Here is the elements factual triggers for this recovery:
- The non-farm payrolls (NFP) report showed 119,000 job creations compared to 53,000 expected, a figure twice as high as forecast;
- This performance helped push the Dollar Index (DXY) above 100, hitting a six-month high;
- Despite this strength in the dollar, generally an unfavorable signal for risky assets, BTC rebounded strongly;
- New York Fed President John Williams nevertheless struck a more dovish note, saying that “the weakness of the labor market is today a greater risk than inflation”.
The other factor that supported market sentiment concerns monetary policy expectations. Williams' speech changed investors' expectations. Likelihood of a 0.25% rate cut in December, according to CME Group jumped to 78.9%compared to 44% a week earlier.
This change in perception briefly favored risky assets, including bitcoin. However, divergent voices persist within the Fed. Susan Collins, president of the Boston Fed, indicated that she remains undecided on next decisions, illustrating internal tensions around the monetary calendar.
A deceptive rally? Technical signals of a bullish trap
While bitcoin's rally has temporarily improved market sentiment, some analysts warn of a bullish illusion fueled by the relative weakness of the dollar, rather than a recovery based on solid fundamentals.
Among them, Tony Severino, technical analyst, believes that the last peak of BTC reached in October against the dollar could correspond to a “B-wave rally” in a corrective sequence from Elliott.
To support his analysis, Severino refers to the BTC/Gold ratio, which shows a downward trend despite the rebound of bitcoin against the dollar. This structural underperformance compared to gold would reflect latent weakness in the BTC market.
According to its projections, this ratio would enter a corrective phase which could extend until December or January 2026, consistent with the bitcoin halving cycle. These technical signals therefore suggest that the current rebound could mask a distribution phase, or even precede a more lasting trend reversal.
Despite its rebound above $86,000, the price of bitcoin remains dependent on macroeconomic uncertainties. Between contradictory data and fragile technical signals, caution dominates among analysts.
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