While Bitcoin suffered a sharp decline on the first Monday of the month, it managed to rebound by more than 27% in the following days. Let’s analyze together the future prospects of the BTC price.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Status
After falling significantly due to fears of a recession in the United States, Bitcoin bottomed at $49,200. It is important to note that this price level corresponded to an area of interest confirmed by an area of significant value. Since then, the flagship cryptocurrency has regained strength, jumping by nearly 28%. Bitcoin thus broke through the psychological threshold of $60,000 and reached a high of $62,800. Unfortunately, this bullish momentum began to wane from this last level, which now acts as resistance.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $59,500. While the short-term structure seems to be turning bullish again, the medium-long term trend of the cryptocurrency remains uncertain. Indeed, although BTC has moved back above its annual and monthly VWAP, it remains below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which recently formed a “death cross”. In terms of the cryptocurrency’s momentum, it still appears weak despite a small rebound last week. This is reflected in the price of BTC itself as well as in the oscillators. Naturally, all of these elements continue to cast doubt on the cryptocurrency market.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Now a trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of self-employed traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and friendly atmosphere.
Zoom on derivatives (BTCUSDT)
The latest Bitcoin fluctuations have led to a slight increase in open interest on Bitcoin perpetual contracts, but this effect already seems to be about to be erased. This shows speculative interest that is not really marked. Although the general sentiment is bullish, as reflected in funding rates, the latest market orders have shown ongoing selling pressure according to the CVD. On the liquidation side, none have been perfectly marked since the first week of the month. Thus, the lack of liquidations means that the market could be in a consolidation phase.
The liquidation heatmap of the last three months indicates that BTC/USDT has reached the liquidation zone around $61,500. It seems that the cryptocurrency has attracted some selling at this level, reacting to the downside. At present, the notable liquidation zones are mainly located above the current Bitcoin price. We can note the subtle zone just below $66,000 and the one just above $67,000. More important, we can also mention the zones above $70,000 and $72,000. Below the current price, we can highlight a weak zone around $54,500. If the market approaches these levels, we could see a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. These zones therefore represent major points of interest for investors.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Hypotheses
- If the Bitcoin price stays above $54,500, we could anticipate reaching $62,800 or even $63,000. The next resistance to consider would then be around $65,600 or even $67,000. If the upward movement continues, we could envisage a continuation of the movement up to $70,000 or even $72,000. At this point, this would represent an increase of close to 21%.
- If Bitcoin fails to hold above $54,500, we could see a return to around $53,400. The next support to consider, if the bearish movement continues, would be between $49,200. Further down, we can note the support between $48,300 and $47,000. At this point, this would represent a decline of around 20%.
Conclusion
Although Bitcoin has recovered from a significant decline, its momentum remains fragile, and the medium- to long-term trend remains uncertain. Despite some positive signals, doubts persist about BTC's ability to maintain a sustained upward movement, which fuels uncertainty across the entire cryptocurrency market. Thus, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at different key levels to confirm or deny current assumptions. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential market “fake outs” and “squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve rapidly depending on other more fundamental factors.
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