Since the crash of October 11, bitcoin has been under pressure. Every rebound is slowed down, every technical support falters. At $103,807 currently, BTC appears to be on a tightrope. Should we expect a new plunge, or believe in a trend reversal? The crypto industry plays a coin toss. The context is tense, the psychology unstable, and the predictions oscillate between resilience and abyss.
In brief
- Bitcoin broke $104,000 and tested a new technical low at $103,732.
- Traders are talking about a fall towards the CME gap located around $92,000.
- Small investors are showing losses, confirmed by the NUPL indicator at –0.058.
- Altcoins follow the trend of the crypto market, weakened by the tense macroeconomic context.
Bitcoin without a net: the slide towards $103,000 accelerates
The price of bitcoin stalled to $103,732 on Bitstamp. The symbolic threshold of $104,000 did not hold. Selling pressure resumed, with no clear recovery signal. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades summarizes: “ The main support of $BTC, which had supported the price for several weeks, was lost. The price is now nearing the bottom of the zone, where it made its first low higher after the rebound following the October 10 liquidation event “.
From a technical point of view, the signals are not encouraging. The 50-week EMA is under threat. The return to the $103,000 zone is worrying. Ardi, another trader, notes that the strand of 10/10 is being filledwhich is never a good omen.
But what fuels this spiral are also the weakened fundamentals. Stock markets are faltering, the dollar is appreciating, and the crypto community has doubts. The BTC market appears to be looking for a bottom, but there is no guarantee that it has found it.
Serial capitulation: towards the famous $92,000 gap?
The $100,000 threshold is now fragile. For some analysts, it only slows down the inevitable. Ted Pillows alert :
If Bitcoin loses the $100,000 zone, expect a correction towards the $92,000 level, where a CME gap exists.
This famous “CME gap” around $92,000 is an unmet technical level. In previous cycles, gaps have often been revisited. For traders, this zone acts like a magnet. A correction to this level is not just a pessimistic scenario, but an increasingly discussed probability.
At the same time, small holders, or Short-Term Holders (STH), are showing signs of capitulation. The NUPL indicator shows -0.058. According to Glassnode, this metric reflects an area of historical stress: these levels have often preceded accumulation points. But we still need to be able to weather the storm.
The tension does not spare other cryptos. Ether weakens, altcoins often fall more sharply. The entire crypto market follows the oscillations of bitcoin, and the wind blows in gusts.
Crypto under stress: macro, altcoins and five key facts to remember
The pressure does not only come from Japanese candlesticks. The macroeconomic environment is working against the crypto market. The dollar is strengthening, the stock markets are correcting, and risk aversion is increasing. In this context, the slightest flaw becomes a chasm.
The behavior of the whales accentuates this scenario: they sell massively. This increases the burden on prices, makes rebounds shorter, and pushes the most impatient to cut their losses. On X, traders retreat. Many are waiting for a sign of strength to return, but the time has not yet come.
Distrust also affects altcoins. Often more volatile, they amplify bitcoin's movements. Result: portfolios at half mast and a generalized defensive strategy.
Key takeaways
- Current bitcoin price: $103,807;
- Area targeted by the CME gap: approximately $92,000;
- NUPL indicator (STH): -0.058;
- 50-week EMA support: around $102,000;
- Massive sales of identified whales in recent days.
No matter the storm, some see it as an opportunity in disguise. Despite the volatility of the crypto market, bullish momentum could well be reborn. Several analysts are already putting forward a shortlist of the 7 most promising cryptos for the next bull run. Suffice to say that all is not lost: perhaps calm will come after the storm.
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