A 2% stake in bitcoin, left untouched for more than 10 years, now accounts for nearly 85% of the average portfolio of Fundstrat clients. This is the story told by Tom Lee during an interview with Wealthion published on September 11, 2026. A spectacular figure, certainly. Especially since it says a lot about the power of the composition of crypto assets over time. However, it also highlights a serious concentration problem.
In brief
- Fundstrat advised 2% in bitcoin more than ten years ago.
- This position would now exceed 85% of certain portfolios, without additional purchases.
- The switch assumes a performance close to 278 times if the rest remains stable.
- Tom Lee anticipates twelve bullish months, but his figures remain estimates.
How did a 2% crypto bet in bitcoin exceed 85%?
It all starts with a measured decision. Many institutional investors inject a tiny fraction of their capital into the first crypto on the market. The initial idea? Gain exposure to a powerful emerging technology without taking risk for the rest of their holdings.
10 years later, a small marginal investment of 2% in bitcoin transforms over cycles into a significant investment. The latter represents up to 85% of the overall value of certain accounts. A performance that the co-founder of Fundstrat sums up in a simple sentence:
They bought 2% and bitcoin went up a lot.
In other words, the move from 2% to more than 85% would result from the rise in bitcoin and not additional payments. The calculation also gives the measure of the phenomenon. In an initial crypto portfolio of $100, $2 invested in BTC must rise to around $555 to represent 85% of a set of which the remaining $98 would not have moved. In other words, the implied return approaches 278 times the initial stake.
This reconstruction, however, remains theoretical. In its official presentation, Fundstrat no exact purchase date, no audited statements, no performance of other assets. Other elements could therefore considerably modify the result:
- withdrawals;
- contributions;
- sales;
- variations in stocks and bonds.
Tom Lee’s spectacular figure hides another, more surprising reality
According to Tom Lee, between 80% and 90% of investors still have no exposure to bitcoin. And yet they own gold or stocks in abundance. At the same time, many of them are willing to invest in technologies that they don’t fully understand. This is particularly the case for electric vehicles and large artificial intelligence models. Bitcoin remains an area of discomfort for them.
During his interview with Wealthion, Tom Lee therefore brings the debate back to a simple question:
Do they want to be right or do they want to make money?
According to some crypto analysts, a winning position can become dangerously dominant. Without rebalancing, the rise in the price of bitcoin in effect automatically increases crypto exposure. But not only that! This also reduces the diversification sought at the outset. At 85%, the behavior of the account depends almost entirely on a single asset, whereas the initial allocation of 2% was intended to limit the loss in the event of failure.
In this particular case, the difference between performance and prudence therefore counts enormously. In December 2024, BlackRock judged that a weighting of 1% to 2% could be suitable for investors with appropriate governance and risk tolerance. The manager nevertheless issues an important warning: beyond 2%, the share of bitcoin in the total risk becomes disproportionate in the face of a major technological action.
This contrast therefore does not refute the story told by Lee. He changes the reading. An exceptional increase rewards patience. On the other hand, a weighting of 85% also exposed to violent declines in the crypto market.
Tom Lee sees bullish 12 months for crypto and bitcoin
Tom Lee estimates that 80% to 90% of retail investors do not yet hold any crypto. He presents this low participation as a potential reserve of demand for bitcoin as well as other digital assets. However, this is neither a published survey nor an independent measurement. The percentage comes from his own estimation during the interview.
His scenario is also based on cleaning up the leverage. Lee describes the current period as the fourth crypto winter (or bear market). According to him, the liquidations of October and those which took place after the start of the war with Iran eliminated part of the indebted positions. He now sees leverage reappearing in Korea and brings this movement closer to previous low points in the crypto cycle.
THE digital asset stocks reinforce his optimism. According to him, four of the Russell 1000’s 21 best performers in the third quarter came from crypto companies. Upstream, BitMine jumped 99%.
Lee adds a long-term bet on institutional adoption. If $100 trillion in assets migrate to tokenization, capturing 1% of that activity would, by his calculation, represent $1 trillion in net revenue.
In any case, this spectacular shift proves that bitcoin is much more than a simple asset. It now constitutes the central engine of modern financial performance. Will investors finally adapt their theoretical reading grids to this crypto reality? Will they try to forcefully stem the growth of a digital asset that refuses to be locked into obsolete ratios? The answer in the coming years!
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our ‘Read to Earn’ program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
