As tension rises in the market, Bitcoin is preparing to cross a critical technical threshold: the “death cross”. This signal, feared by traders, comes at a pivotal moment, at the crossroads of a 25% correction and an uncertain macroeconomic climate. While some see it as a classic bearish indicator, others point out that it coincided with market lows. In this context, certainties waver, and each candlestick becomes a test for investor morale.
In brief
- Bitcoin is approaching a “death cross”, a bearish technical signal feared by both traditional and crypto investors.
- Despite its negative reputation, the previous “death crosses” observed since 2023 have all coincided with local lows marking rebounds.
- The market has corrected 25% since its October peak, bringing BTC below its annual entry price at $93,507.
- The end of the American shutdown, far from calming the markets, triggered a new wave of declines, as during a previous cycle in 2019.
The death cross signal: bearish indicator or inflection point?
Barely a month after reaching an all-time high of more than $126,000, BTC fell by almost 25%, temporarily erasing all of its gains since the start of the year.
Glassnode data reveal that short- and long-term trend indicators are about to cross downward, a phenomenon known as “death cross”. This pattern, in which the 50-day moving average (MA50) slides below the 200-day moving average (MA200), is generally seen as a bearish signal.
Bitcoin's 50-day moving average at $110,669 is now poised to break below the 200-day moving average at $110,459. This dynamic is often feared, because it reflects a weakening of short-term momentum in the face of the underlying trend.
However, historical data from the last two years calls into question this pessimistic reading. Since the start of the 2023 bull cycle, each occurrence of a death cross has marked a local low point rather than a prolonged collapse. Here are the previous cases recorded:
- September 2023: death cross coincides with a technical floor around $25,000;
- August 2024: in the midst of the yen carry trade crisis, bitcoin rebounds after hitting $49,000;
- April 2025: in a context of uncertainties linked to Trump's tariff policies, BTC briefly falls below $75,000 before starting to rise again;
- November 2025: the price of bitcoin flirts with $94,000, and some analysts already see the beginnings of a new rebound, just before the expected crossover.
This fourth crossing could well, once again, play the role of “seller trap” more than that of a precursor of a crash.
The fragile market balance
The current situation, however, cannot be reduced to a technical reading. The macroeconomic context acts as a catalyst for this volatility.
The end of the American government shutdown, which occurred on November 12 after 43 days of shutdown, paradoxically triggered a 10% fall in BTC in the space of a few days. CThis type of reaction was already observed in January 2019, when bitcoin fell 9% in the five days following the resumption of government activities.
At the same time, another factor weighs on the upward dynamic: profit-taking behavior among whales. This is not a panic movement, but a classic pattern at the end of a bull cycle.
Such a gradual rise reflects increasing distribution pressure from old holders, a typical pattern of late-cycle profit-taking, and not a sudden exit of whales. This nuance is essential, because it shows that the movements observed are less linked to a crisis of confidence than to tactical risk management by experienced investors.
As explains it Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, “the fundamentals remain solid… I think 2026 will be a good year”.
In the medium term, this combination of factors raises the question of the validity of the traditional four-year cycle in cryptos. Despite broader institutional adoption, the rise of Bitcoin ETFs and a Trump administration perceived as pro-crypto, the market is showing signs of feverishness. To achieve this, the market will first have to go through this phase of instability.
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