Bitcoin has been in a bit of a hangover lately. Exit the six-figure lyrical flights. Reality hits: BTC is hovering around $87,000, and the tide is turning for those who live from its heartbeat… especially miners. Less visible than traders, they are nevertheless the first sentinels of the network. And today? Their business model is on artificial respiration. Between an explosion in hashrate and a fall in revenues, the industry is going through a pivotal period. Welcome to the back room of an ecosystem that is trying to mutate towards AI.
In brief
- The global hashrate is exploding, but miners' income is stagnating and even flirting with the critical threshold.
- Returns on investment now exceed three years for new bitcoin mining machines.
- Cipher, IREN and CleanSpark are turning to AI and the cloud to diversify their revenues.
- The stock markets are racing, driven by announcements despite real profitability in free fall.
Bitcoin in the red, but hashrate breaks records
On the one hand, the global hashrate for bitcoin mining reached an all-time high at 1.16 ZH/s. On the other hand, the hashprice drops to $35/PH/s, eating into margins to the bone. In plain language? More power, but for less income. The return on investment for the machines now exceeds 1,200 days. At this rate, even the most efficient rigs become energy-guzzling kettles.
The Miner Mag report summarizes the situation acutely :
Mining margins have weakened as hash prices have fallen and machine payback periods have lengthened, although publicly traded mining companies have rebounded thanks to analyst recommendation upgrades and new deals in high-performance computing (HPC).
In this climate, some minors give in to the temptation of over-indebtedness. Others are content to “chance their brakes”, hoping for more lenient days in terms of the price of BTC. All while the infrastructure continues to grow… mechanically.
Bitcoin in the cloud: miners rely on AI
Faced with this downward spiral, the giants of the sector are adapting their strategy. CleanSpark, Cipher Mining, IREN: all are redirecting their computing power towards the cloud and HPC (High Performance Computing), hoping to find new cash cows.
And it’s starting to bear fruit… at least on the markets. JP Morgan recently boosted morale by raising its forecasts: Cipher could climb to $18, IREN to $39. And why this enthusiasm? Because Cipher has already secured 600 MW of capacity for AWS and Google via Fluidstack, while IREN signed a $9.7 billion deal with Microsoft to host Nvidia GB300 GPUs.
But be careful of the magnifying glass effect. The Miner Mag report highlights that revenues from these services, although increasing, still remain too low to truly compensate for the sudden drop in gains linked to bitcoin mining.
In short, AI will not save everyone. And probably not right away.
When the stock market is racing while bitcoin is running out of steam
Curiously, despite struggling fundamentals, mining stocks are soaring. Cipher Mining climbs 4.59%, CleanSpark 4.42%, and even outsiders like RIOT or MARA are regaining color. The engine? Optimistic analyst notes, juicy deals with tech giants, and persistent faith in the long-term potential of BTC.
However, all is not rosy. JP Morgan analysts lowered their targets for MARA ($13) and RIOT ($17), pointing to their large BTC reserves and stock dilution. In summary: these boxes store bitcoin like stacking buoys… but at what price?
The entire mining ecosystem thus finds itself in a strange balance between innovation, speculation and disillusionment.
What to remember in numbers
- The global hashrate peaks at 1.16 ZH/s;
- Bitcoin price at time of writing: $87,243;
- The hashprice has fallen to $35/PH/s, from $55 just a quarter ago;
- AI/HPC contracts signed are close to $10 billion, but revenues remain minimal;
- Investment returns exceed 1,200 days in a historically profitable industry in just a few months.
And while the United States finances at all costs and Europe seeks greener regulation, China is moving forward in disguise. Officially, it still prohibits bitcoin mining. Unofficially ? It hosts up to 20% of the global hashrate. Low-cost electricity from Xinjiang and Sichuan powers ever-increasing “ghost” farms. A shadow strategy, which says a lot about the geopolitical ambiguities around BTC. For Beijing, it may be better to mine discreetly than to depend on the dollar.
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