As bitcoin goes through a new zone of turbulence, Michael Saylor finds himself at the heart of a decisive standoff with MSCI. Threat of exclusion from indices, pressure from institutional investors and massive exposure to the king asset: its bet on bitcoin is more than ever put to the test.
In brief
- Michael Saylor faces possible exclusion of Strategy from MSCI indices, due to high volatility linked to his massive exposure to Bitcoin
- The fall in price, anticipated losses and tensions with JP Morgan have weakened the stock, while rekindling criticism of a business model entirely indexed to an ultra-volatile asset.
- Despite this, Saylor maintains his bet, continues to accumulate bitcoin and is betting on the idea that the asset remains undervalued, with some believing it capable of aiming for $270,000 in the long term.
A bitcoin giant faces an institutional storm
Michael Saylor, iconic figure of bitcoin and president of Strategy, today finds himself at the heart of a crucial negotiation with MSCI, the giant of global stock indices. At stake: the very future of the company in the MSCI USA and MSCI World indices, of which it is currently a part.
The threat of exclusion weighs heavily, due to a balance sheet considered too volatile, a direct consequence of its massive exposure to bitcoin. For MSCI, this volatility compromises the expected stability of the companies present in its indices, while for Saylor, it is a real existential battle.
The issue goes well beyond the borders of Strategy. An exit from the index could trigger capital outflows valued at $2.8 billion, according to JP Morgan. And if other index providers followed, the overall impact could rise to 8.8 billion. But Saylor, true to his provocative style, vigorously disputes these figures, calling the American bank's estimates “rough” and potentially “biased.”
The double face of Saylor’s Bitcoin strategy
Since 2020, Strategy has established itself as the first listed company to transform its war chest into bitcoin. A daring maneuver, hailed at its beginnings, but which today becomes a double-edged sword.
When bitcoin rises, MSTR stock acts as speculative leverage, increasing gains tenfold. But when the market turns, the fall is brutal. The recent 10% drop in bitcoin was enough to cause a new wave of sales, sending the stock into a spiral of -60% since July.
There is no shortage of criticism. Some investors see JP Morgan's recent actions, including tightening margins on MSTR-backed loans, as a coordinated attack on Saylor's company. Others see it rather as the materialization of a structural risk: that of a company closely indexed to an ultra-volatile asset.
Saylor doesn't flinch. “If bitcoin falls by 30% or 40%, our action will do worse, it’s mathematical,” he admitted with almost stoic lucidity. But behind this apparent fatalism, the billionaire is playing a game of chess with the institutions, banking on the resilience of the queen cryptocurrency.
Between anticipated losses and unshakeable faith
The observation is brutal: Strategy anticipates losses of up to 5.5 billion in 2025 if bitcoin remains below $100,000. Faced with this scenario, the company sold part of its assets to create a reserve of $1.44 billion in cash, intended to honor its dividends and debt. A maneuver deemed defensive by analysts, but which Saylor presents as a short-term survival strategy.
Despite the storm, man does not give up. Far from reducing his exposure, he bought back an additional 130 Bitcoin (BTC), bringing Strategy's war chest to 650,000 BTC, valued at approximately $59 billion. An almost symbolic gesture, but which sends a clear message: Saylor remains convinced that bitcoin has not yet said its last word.
Bitcoin's recent surge, up 6.5% over 24 hours to $92,998, offers a slight respite for Saylor and Strategy, while pressure from MSCI and institutional markets remains palpable. However, behind this temporary improvement, a question continues to emerge: is bitcoin today undervalued, while some estimate that its real value could approach $270,000? If such a prospect were to materialize, it would reinforce Strategy's bold strategy, while highlighting the growing gap between the vision of Bitcoin supporters and the still rigid caution of large financial institutions like MSCI.
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