Metaplanet has just sent a clear signal to the market: the company does not intend to let its trajectory be dictated by a set of accounting entries. Yes, the company forecasts a heavy annual loss in 2025. And yet, it raises its operational objectives and announces an almost doubling of sales in 2026. Put like that, it seems like a paradox. In reality, it is above all a clash of vocabulary between accounting and cash.
In brief
- Metaplanet raises its 2026 forecast despite a non-cash depreciation of $680–700 million on its Bitcoin holdings.
- In 2025, the company improves its revenues and operating income, but posts a heavy net loss due to impairment.
- Its Bitcoin cash strategy accelerates sharply, making its results very sensitive to market volatility and flows.
A massive loss… but above all an accounting optical effect at Metaplanet
Metaplanet announces a non-cash depreciation of around $680 to $700 million on its BTC holdings. Simple translation: at closing, the book value is adjusted based on period-end prices, and the company “recognizes” a loss without taking out a single dollar of cash.
This point is essential, because it explains why the company can display, in the same document, a better operational outlook and a dizzying net loss. It's a bit like judging the strength of a ship solely by the color of the paint: it may worry, but that's not what makes it float.
Moreover, Metaplanet insists: this adjustment has “no direct impact” on cash flow or operations. In other words, business continues to operate. And it would even perform better than expected, if the extent of the guidance revision is to be believed.
2025: the real story is hidden in operational performance
By 2025, Metaplanet is raising its turnover forecast at 8.905 billion yen (around $58 million) and is targeting an operating profit of around $40 million. This is not a detail: a company that strengthens its revenue and operating profit projections is not a company that is “dying,” even if the bottom line tells the opposite.
The most telling point comes from the “Bitcoin income generation” segment. Management says Q4 2025 revenue is expected to “significantly exceed” initial expectations. Result: the annual objective for this segment rises to around 55 million dollars, compared to 40 million previously announced. There, we are no longer in theory: it is the heart of the reactor which accelerates.
And yet the company anticipates an ordinary loss of about $632 million and a net loss of about $491 million. It's violent. But the “why” matters more than the “how much”: these losses are largely driven by accounting depreciation, not by operational hemorrhage. The release of annual results is expected on February 16, and that's when many will finally differentiate between performance and presentation.
Bitcoin Treasury: the scale changes, and with it the reading of risk
The other piece of the puzzle is the growth of BTC treasury. Metaplanet indicates that its holdings increased from 1,762 BTC at the end of 2024 to 35,102 BTC at the end of 2025. This jump is not “progressive”, it is industrial. And when a company scales so quickly, its financial statements automatically become more sensitive to price variations.
The company also highlights an in-house indicator : the “BTC yield” per diluted share, announced at 568% over the year. Clearly, the quantity of Bitcoin “backed” by each diluted share would have increased significantly. This is a way of speaking to investors who think in BTC exposure rather than in simple annual P&L.
And this is precisely where the debate becomes interesting: the more Metaplanet grows in BTC, the more it is exposed to the effects of volatility on the accounts… but the more it positions itself as a growth vehicle for those who want a treasury strategy centered on Bitcoin. This is not a discreet bet. It’s an assumed posture.
2026: ambitious guidance, but without online promise
For 2026, Metaplanet announces approximately $103 million in revenue and $73 million in operating income. Almost everything would come from the “income generation” business linked to Bitcoin, with SG&A fees around 29 million. The message is direct: the company believes it can convert its strategy into recurring revenue, not just narrative.
On the other hand, it does not provide guidance on ordinary or net income for 2026. And, for once, it is rather a proof of lucidity: forecasting the net income of a company whose cash flow is massively exposed to a volatile asset often amounts to “predicting the price” under the guise of financial projection, especially in a market where flows can change in a few days, as illustrated by the recent outflow of $1.72 billion from American Bitcoin ETFs in one week.
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