Bitcoin loses a key level: the end of the upward trend?

Worn by euphoria and records beyond 124,000 dollars, Bitcoin seemed out of reach. However, the sudden rupture of a major technical support, a pillar of the upward trend, turned this painting upside down. False alert or real reversal signal? The question divides analysts and investors, at a time when certainties vacillate and volatility resumes its rights.

A technical breakdown of meaning

In the last week of August, Bitcoin recorded a marked drop of more than 13.75 % compared to its historic summit of more than $ 124,000, thus breaking a line of multi -year bullish trend which has supported its rally for more than two years.

This technical break has rekindled fears of a market reversal with many investors, especially since the RSI (relative force index), although in the support zone, also seems under pressure. Historically, it is the simultaneous loss of the parabolic curve and the RSI which preceded the worst bitcoin corrections.

Here is the striking facts mentioned in the analysis:

• In 2013, Bitcoin fell from $ 1,150 to $ 150, -85 %, after the joint loss of its parabolic and RSI supports;

• In 2017, an identical dynamic caused a drop from $ 20,000 to $ 3,100, or -84 %;

• In 2021, the burst of the bubble resulted in a drop from $ 69,000 to $ 15,500, equivalent to -77 %.

The analyst recalls that if the RSI in turn breaks its support, Bitcoin could dive to the exponential mobile average 50 bi-Hebdomedary periods (EMA-50-2W), currently located around $ 80,000.

No technical signal still excludes this scenario. However, at this stage, the market enters a critical test phase, where the slightest break could accelerate corrective dynamics.

A false deliberate break to shake the markets?

For several leading analysts, this rupture could however be only a lure. It is in particular the thesis defended by Bitbull, which describes the current situation as a probable market manipulation intended to frighten too nervous investors.

“Even a capitulation wick below $ 100,000 would correspond to the historic behavior of Bitcoin, consisting in ejecting weak hands before a violent recovery”he said. In his eyes, this decline could therefore be interpreted as an accumulation opportunity rather than an end of cycle.

This interpretation is shared by the Superbro analyst, which relies on the PI Cycle TOP model, known for having correctly identified the heights of the Haussiers cycles of 2013, 2017 and 2021. This model is based on the crossing of two mobile averages: the 111SMA (simple single mobile over 111 days) and double the 350SMA.

However, according to Superbro, “No cross cycle cross has yet taken place, which indicates that the top of the cycle has not yet been reached”. He deduces that Bitcoin could climb up to $ 280,000 before entering a real reversal phase. In his eyes, the current area of ​​$ 80,000 to 100,000 is therefore a strategic recharging area, not a red alert.

Even if the TOP PI has not yet given a summit signal, it does not exclude intermediate correction phases. In addition, the current market structure is influenced by macroeconomic, regulatory and geopolitical factors that do not fall into technical models.

If the RSI broke its support line, a new downward sequence could be quickly triggered, making the most brunt scenarios in the short term. Conversely, a rapid rebound above $ 114,000, a level identified as critical by several traders, could invalidate this false break and reinstall the BTC in its long-term upward trend.