While Bitcoin sits like a ship in a macroeconomic storm, the threshold of $ 84,000 becomes a symbol of resistance. The latest data from the American consumption Expenditures (PCE), published on March 28, injected a dose of gross realism in the Euphoria of the Markets. Inflation, this tenacious spectrum, returns to haunt traders. But behind the figures, a question burns: can bitcoin maintain its status of refuge value, or will it yield under the weight of economic indicators?
The PCE, a blow for Crypto optimism
Despite declining inflation in the euro zone, the figures for the February PCE in the United States had the effect of an icy alarm clock. With a 0.3 % monthly inflation and an annual increase of 2.5 %, market expectations were met.
But the devil hides in details : The Core PCE, Fed preferred indicator, exceeded 0.1 % forecast on both scales. A subtle thrust, but sufficient to revive the fears of an prolonged monetary tightening.
Underlying inflation starts upwards, alert The Kobeissi Letter On X. Worse again: the January data has been revised upwards, drawing a disturbing trajectory.
Some analysts even evoke a scenario of stagflation for 2025, toxic mixture of economic stagnation and price increase. A context where Bitcoin, often perceived as an anti-inflationary shield, seems paradoxically vulnerable.
The reaction of the markets was immediate. The BTC/USD plunged under $ 84,500 on Bitstamp, its lowest level for a week.
A fall of 3 % in a few hours, recalling that cryptocurrencies do not sail outside economic realities. For investors, the message is clear: the Fed could delay its rate drops, extending the liquidation winter.
$ 84,000: high -risk psychological support for Bitcoin
In this uncertain landscape, the threshold of $ 84,000 becomes a front line. Michaël Van de Popperenowned analyst, sums up the issue:
“In the event of a break under $ 84,000, a test of $ 78,000-80,000 is likely. »»
A scenario that would plunge Bitcoin to its lowest in February, erasing weeks of consolidation.
However, not all see the glass half empty. For Daan Crypto Trades, this volatility is typical of a market in the cooling phase.
The RSI (relative Strength Index) on 12 -hour graphics shows a shortness of breath, but not yet a collapse.
Others, like Thekingfisherevoke seasonal reset, anticipating the famous “Sell in May and Go Away”. An ancestral strategy that could weigh on courses in the coming weeks.
But Bitcoin has always played with paradoxes. Despite the opposite winds, it has maintained a global upward trend since January.
ETF Spot, institutional purchases and the upcoming reduction in the mining reward (Halving) remain underestimated catalysts. However, the market seems to be taken between two fires: the hope of a new ATH (All-Time High) and the fear of a deep correction.
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