JPMorgan Asset Management includes bitcoin for the first time in its long-term market forecasts. In its 2027 report, the bank expects a compound return of 10% per year over the next 10 to 15 years. This is more than the 7.5% expected for major US stocks and the 5.5% for gold. The counterpart is clear. JPMorgan estimates the annual volatility of bitcoin at 55%.
In brief
- JPMorgan projects a compound return of 10% per year for Bitcoin.
- Large US stocks are expected at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%.
- Despite this projection, Bitcoin remains absent from the portfolio allocations offered by the bank.
Bitcoin enters JPMorgan forecast for the first time
This is a first in the 31 editions of JPMorgan’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. The bank, which had already increased its exposure to Bitcoin ETFs in the second quarter of 2026, now directly attributes a long-term return assumption to BTC.
The figure used is 10% per year in compound return. US REITs follow with 8.2%, then US small caps at 7.7% and large caps at 7.5%. US high yield bonds reach 6.6%. Gold remains at 5.5%.
In this selection, bitcoin therefore comes out on top. The report covers a horizon of 10 to 15 years and more than 200 asset classes. JPMorgan specifies that these figures are used for strategic portfolio construction. They constitute neither price objectives nor a promise of performance.
Purely mathematically, $100 growing at 10% per year would be worth approximately $259 after ten years and $418 after fifteen years. This obviously assumes that JPMorgan’s average return comes true.
High yield comes with 55% volatility
The second number is much less comfortable. JPMorgan estimates bitcoin’s annualized volatility at 55%. It is around 18% for large American stocks and 17.2% for gold.
The discrepancy explains another peculiarity of the report. The estimated annual arithmetic return for bitcoin reaches 20.9%, more than double its compound return of 10%. Strong declines and successive recoveries greatly reduce the performance actually compounded over several years.
This volatility remains at the center of comparisons between bitcoin and the yellow metal. In September, JPMorgan still estimated that Bitcoin had greater catch-up potential than gold, particularly with regard to positioning on ETFs and futures markets.
The 2027 report goes further by now attributing a numerical return hypothesis to Bitcoin. But JPMorgan still doesn’t treat it like a traditional stock or bond. The bank describes it as a speculative asset that can also act as a hedge against monetary easing.
JPMorgan still does not put Bitcoin in its model portfolios
The 10% figure does not mean that JPMorgan automatically advises its clients to buy Bitcoin. The distinction appears clearly in the report. BTC fits into the return assumptions, but not into the strategic allocation examples. The bank mainly cites the instability of its correlations with other assets.
Bitcoin can sometimes move with stocks. At other times, its behavior is closer to gold or completely detached from both. JPMorgan therefore believes that it is still difficult to give it a lasting diversification function.
The contrast with the bank’s previous analyzes remains interesting. At the end of 2025, JPMorgan had calculated a theoretical price close to $170,000 for Bitcoin against gold. It was then a comparison of valuation and volatility over a much shorter horizon. The new report changes scale. JPMorgan no longer just gives a price scenario. Bitcoin now enters the same 10-15 year projection exercise as stocks, bonds, real estate or gold.
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