On October 19, BlackRock’s IBIT fund attracted $665.16 million when all American spot bitcoin ETFs received only $526.6 million. The two biggest rivals alone have lost the equivalent of the gap. Demand does not return, it concentrates.
In brief
- IBIT attracted $665.16 million as of Oct. 19, according to SoSoValue data.
- Fidelity and Grayscale saw $83.6 million and $54.9 million in outflows, respectively.
- On October 1, ETFs excluding BlackRock had already lost $93 million despite an overall positive balance sheet.
BlackRock captures entries, its competitors drop out
The numbers reveal a stark contrast. IBIT alone has attracted more capital than the entire US spot Bitcoin ETF market. Indeed, the $665.16 million collected by BlackRock exceeds the net flow of all funds combined by $138.6 million.
This difference is mainly explained by withdrawals from two major competitors. Fidelity’s FBTC lost $83.6 million, while Grayscale’s GBTC saw $54.9 million in outflows. Together, these two funds totaled $138.5 million in withdrawals, almost exactly the difference observed.
This phenomenon is nothing new. By October 1, bitcoin ETFs excluding BlackRock had already accumulated $93 million in net outflows. IBIT was then sufficient to keep the overall balance sheet in the green. Three weeks later, the same scenario occurs again, with larger amounts.
After the outings, a rebound that remains fragile
This return of entries comes after a negative session the previous Friday. The reversal shows how quickly flows can move in the bitcoin ETF market, especially when volatility increases.
However, this positive day is not enough to erase recent losses. Between October 1 and October 16, U.S. bitcoin ETFs had seen approximately $910 million in outflows. At the same time, bitcoin had fallen below the average cost of holders of these funds.
These figures must therefore be interpreted with caution. The flows reflect subscriptions and redemptions of shares, and not purchases of bitcoins made at a specific time. A single session alone does not confirm a lasting change in trend.
Are investors now favoring IBIT?
Beyond the rebound, the concentration of capital is attracting attention. IBIT attracted more than the net flow of all US ETFs, a sign that other products weighed on the overall result.
However, the October 19 data does not allow us to determine whether investors favor BlackRock for liquidity, arbitrage or strategy reasons. Likewise, the exits at Fidelity and Grayscale do not necessarily mean their customers are abandoning bitcoin.
The next step will therefore be decisive: will inflows extend to other Bitcoin ETFs or will IBIT continue to concentrate most of the demand? The response will allow us to better measure the strength of the rebound.
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