Bitcoin is showing excellent health in terms of adoption. Institutions, banks, governments, traders, everyone is getting into BTC. However, its price remains down 50% from its historic peak. A troubling dichotomy that raises a key question: is the market underestimating what is really happening?
In brief
- River confirms that bitcoin adoption reached an all-time high in 2025 across all categories.
- Institutions have accumulated 829,000 BTC this year, including ETFs, funds and listed companies.
- 60% of major American banks are now developing products linked to Bitcoin.
- The number of US merchants accepting BTC has tripled; payments via Lightning Network jumped 300%.
An adoption that does not experience a bear market
In a report published this Tuesday, the American financial services company River draws up a surprising observation. Despite a bitcoin price halving since its October peak, adoption has never been stronger. “ Bitcoin adoption is not in a bear market phase », River writes bluntly.
The numbers speak for themselves. In 2025, institutions have accumulated 829,000 BTCvia ETFs, sovereign wealth funds, corporate balance sheets and government purchases. Registered investment advisors have been buying bitcoin net for eight consecutive quarters, investing an average of $1.5 billion per quarter in Bitcoin ETFs.
They are not simple speculators: these actors manage the savings of millions of Americans, who discover bitcoin for the first time through their retirement plans or brokerage accounts.
On the business side, the movement has accelerated. Crypto cash management companies, modeled on Strategy, have multiplied their purchases by 2.5 in one year. And 60% of major American banks are now working on Bitcoin products, a turning point made possible by the new regulatory framework put in place since Trump's arrival at the White House.
Traders, States and volatility, Bitcoin enters a new era
Adoption is not limited to Wall Street. The number of US businesses accepting bitcoin as a payment method has simply tripled in 2025. Globally, the use of BTC as a payment currency has increased by 74%.
On the Lightning Network, transactions jumped 300%, reaching over $1.1 billion in monthly volume.
States are also getting in on the action. Five nations acquired bitcoin in 2025: Luxembourg, Saudi Arabia (via their sovereign wealth funds), the Czech Central Bank, Brazil and Taiwan.
In total, River estimates that 23 nation states now hold BTC, whether through state mining, judicial seizures, or direct exposure from their central banks.
Another strong signal: the volatility of bitcoin is declining. It is now approaching that of gold and the S&P 500, which was unthinkable five years ago.
“ As volatility declines, the hurdles for the most risk-averse investors become less », notes River.
This fundamental picture coincides with a silent tightening of supply: Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have fallen by 500,000 BTC in a year, and apparent on-chain demand has just returned to positive territory for the first time in three months.
In short, the price will end up reflecting reality. Bitcoin adoption today rivals that of the Internet in its early days, according to River. When institutional capital, consumer payments and regulatory maturity converge at this point, history shows that only one element is still missing from the equation: time.
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