Bitcoin Is Deep in a Downtrend According to CryptoQuant

Bitcoin has just crossed a critical, game-changing threshold. According to CryptoQuant, the break of its 365-day moving average is no longer a simple technical signal: it marks the clear entry into a new bearish cycle. This shift takes place in a context of declining institutional demand and degraded on-chain signals. The bullish momentum now seems behind, replaced by a market dynamic structured around caution, wait-and-see… and the risk of prolonged decline.

The market confirms its entry into a prolonged bearish phase

On February 5, CryptoQuant analysts revealed a major technical signal: bitcoin's breakout of its 365-day moving average, a threshold considered critical for judging the long-term trend.

This breakout occurred for the first time since March 2022, the report specifies. Since this downward crossing, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by approximately 23% over 83 days, a faster and more pronounced fall than that observed during the bearish phase of 2022. For CryptoQuant, this break leaves little room for doubt: the market has shifted into an underlying bearish dynamic.

On-chain data comfort this reading revealing a marked deterioration of key indicators:

• The index “Bull Market” to zero: the CryptoQuant indicator, supposed to reflect buying pressure, displays a total absence of upward momentum;

• Negative growth in the supply of stablecoins: this contraction suggests a decline in liquidity available to support the crypto market;

• The volume and interest of investors in decline: the lack of inflows confirms a loss of attractiveness for bitcoin in the short term;

• An absence of signals of reverse capitulation: no indicator suggests a significant revival of appetite or stabilization in the short term.

Bitcoin is now in a structurally bearish configuration. Indeed, traders and institutions alike find themselves faced with a new reality: the absence of technical or fundamental support calls for caution, or even a wait-and-see attitude.

The withdrawal of institutional buyers increases the pressure

While the technical signals are already enough to worry investors, the attitude of institutional players reinforces the thesis of a lasting turnaround. According to the report, spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had supported the market's rise over the previous year, stopped accumulating.

CryptoQuant points out that these vehicles stopped buying and even started selling, creating a net demand gap compared to 2025. The change is particularly visible on the American side. Thus, Coinbase's premium remains negative, suggesting that US-based institutional buyers are no longer actively supporting prices.

This disaffection is combined with a growing correlation between bitcoin and traditional financial markets. The monetary context, dominated by high rates and prudent policy from the Federal Reserve, is weighing on risky assets. Crypto no longer benefits from the status of alternative safe haven asset that it had been able to embody during certain market phases. This situation calls into question certain strategic hypotheses on the decorrelation between cryptos and stock market indices.

The losses made on Bitcoin in 24 hours are colossal, accentuating a climate already weakened by alarming technical signals. In a market now deprived of institutional support, the downward trend seems to be taking hold. The next few weeks will be decisive in determining whether a recovery is possible or whether a deeper decline awaits investors.