Last week I explained that Bitcoin was still moving inside the $76,000 – $82,000 range, continuing the sideways structure we have been seeing since August. My view remains unchanged: we are approaching another attempt to break through the $82,000 – $83,000 zone, but for me a real breakout requires a strong weekly close above this zone.
Why could this mark the start of a new bull cycle?
One of the signals I am watching is the 50-week moving average, currently around the $77,500 – $78,000 area. Bitcoin has managed to retake this moving average and is trading above it again. Historically, the recovery of the 50-week moving average after a bearish phase has accompanied the start of a new bullish expansion on several occasions, although no single indicator should be taken as confirmation in itself.
The current structure also shares similarities with 2022-2023, when Bitcoin needed several attempts around this moving average before finally retaking it and continuing higher. This is why for me the key confirmation remains the $82,000-$83,000 region. A clear weekly close above this zone would shift my view of the market towards the start of a new bullish phase.
ETF flows remain slightly positive for the market
Bitcoin ETF flows are another factor I continue to follow. September data is mixed, with sessions of both strong entries and exits, but the results for the period shown remain generally positive.
There were notable selling days, including approximately $450.4 million in net outflows on September 15 and $295.9 million on September 16. However, these losses were offset by strong buying sessions like around 730.8 million on September 3 and 433.0 million on September 18. Overall, this leaves ETF flows somewhat positive for the market rather than showing sustained institutional selling pressure.
Altcoins for which I position myself
Considering a possible bullish phase, I also began to position myself in several altcoins. Assets I currently monitor and hold include ZAMA, ZEC, NEAR, ONDO and SOL.
On ZAMA, I have already built up spot exposure around $0.05, an entry that I have previously shared with my community. Since this signal, the spot position has increased by over 100%. I also opened a futures position with 3x leverage which, at the time of writing, is showing over 250% profit.
ZEC, NEAR, ONDO and SOL have also been added to my portfolio and are positioned for the next upward movement that I expect in the market.
For now, the focus returns to Bitcoin. Resuming the 50-week moving average was an important first step; crossing and closing above $82,000-83,000 would, for me, be the real confirmation of the start of a new bullish phase.
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