The recent rise in bitcoin prices provides a technical signal that the market is watching closely. On September 22, the price crossed its 365-day simple moving average, around $80,900. This passage comes after 310 days below this line, according to Ryan Horst and Joni Zhuleku, founders of Altcoin Pro. Their study shows that this crossing preceded increases over several previous periods, while reminding that this indicator does not guarantee sustainable progress.
In brief
- Bitcoin returns above its 365-day moving average after 310 days below this line.
- Altcoin Pro observes five previous crossings followed by an increase twelve months later.
- Historical performance has ranged from 59% to over 1,400%, with several exceptions.
- The next test is to check if the price maintains this level after its recent decline.
Bitcoin returns above its 365-day average
The crossing observed on September 22 constitutes a notable change in the technical reading of the BTC market. In a email to CoinDeskAltcoin Pro reports that bitcoin has regained its 365-day moving average for the first time in 310 days. For Ryan Horst and Joni Zhuleku, this return above the line creates a potential bullish signal.
The five previous cases studied by Altcoin Pro have an important common point. Each time, the price was higher twelve months after returning to its 365-day average. These situations followed at least 90 days below this average. However, observed performance varied widely, from around 59% to over 1,400%.
The 2012 case explains the maximum magnitude noted in this series. At that time, the market still viewed bitcoin as a marginal asset. Horst emphasizes, however, that this model remains imperfect and does not constitute a guarantee. Two crossings failed when the analysis included shorter periods below the average.
Moving averages give different signals
Altcoin Pro also gives importance to the 200-day moving average. According to the founders, this benchmark provides a more advanced signal than the 365-day benchmark. It had reached around $70,800, while bitcoin was trading around 19% above before its slight decline over the previous 36 hours. The 365-day average remained down and closer to the market price.
This difference comes from the rate at which each indicator integrates past prices. The 365-day average reacts more slowly to recent movements. The two analysts believe that the first reflects older data more. The second reacts over three months according to their explanation.
On September 8, another technical signal had already attracted the market’s attention. Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average had crossed upwards over the 200-day moving average, forming a “golden cross”. CoinDesk, however, recalled that this signal has a mixed record when it is used alone to anticipate a lasting increase.
The market has yet to confirm this technical change
Altcoin Pro nevertheless considers this crossover to be more constructive in the current context. Bitcoin had spent 293 days below its 200-day moving average before moving back above it. This duration remains less than the approximately 436 days observed below this threshold during the 2022-2023 bear market. This exit therefore remains central to their reading.
Historical data, however, shows that technical indicators do not directly describe future prices. Moving averages are based solely on past prices and measure a trend over a period of time. They may therefore react with delay when the market changes quickly. This limit explains why Horst and Zhuleku ask for confirmation.
The next test is whether bitcoin can maintain this level after the pullback. Horst described September’s progress as encouraging, while calling for observation of its confirmation. The crossing thus provides an additional technical signal to the current market. Its evolution will now depend on how the price reacts around this average.
Crossing the 365-day average therefore marks an improvement in the technical signal of bitcoin, after 310 days under this reference. Historical precedents studied by Altcoin Pro show subsequent rises, but also failures. The next step is to check if the BTC price maintains this threshold and gradually confirms the observed change.
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