Europe is sinking into a war on behalf of an American empire that refuses the new Bretton Woods. In the meantime, bitcoin is chomping at the bit.
The tree that hides the forest
Ukraine is a pawn on the chessboard of a world war in which the American empire tries to maintain its domination. The objective is simple: to degrade the Russian army and drive Vladimir Putin from power.
But not everything goes as planned. Neither on the battlefield nor off it. The sanctions did not collapse the Russian economy or arouse the population against V. Putin. On the contrary.
The difference between Russia’s total exports and imports in 2022 resulted in a surplus of $282 billion. Or an increase of 64 % compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, Allianz expects the Germans to pay for their energy 40 % more expensive in 2023…
Beyond the ruin of Europe, the danger is that the United States will escalate the conflict until it provokes a direct confrontation with Russia. Unfortunately, this is the direction we are taking when we see the involvement of NATO.
US military support began with ammunition, assault weapons and rocket launchers. However, President Biden quickly crossed several self-imposed red lines. There are now no more limits:
Stinger anti-aircraft systems, Javelin anti-tank systems, M777 howitzers, GRAD and HIMARS rockets, TOW missiles, Patriot air defense batteries, M113 armored personnel carriers, and now dozens of Abrams tanks.
To which are now added chariots of the latest generation from a multitude of NATO member countries. The dispatch of F-15 and F-16 fighter planes is also in the pipeline…
We are at the dawn of a new world war, potentially nuclear…
Iran raises the tone
Persia has raised the specter of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the European Parliament preparing to place the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on its list of terrorist organizations.
The threat is come from the Deputy Chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s Internal Affairs Committee:
“If the Europeans treat our armed forces in this way [terroristes]we will also put other options on the table, including restricting European commercial vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Mr Asfari advised Europeans “to reverse their decision before it is too late”. Indeed, 25% of world oil exports and 35% of liquefied natural gas pass through this 55 km wide bottleneck.
Added to this is the recent offensive by Israel of an Iranian military site in Isfahan as well as the approach of the European embargo on refined petroleum (diesel) from Russia. The latter will come into force on February 5, while the embargo on crude oil has been in place since December 5.
As a result, the price of a barrel is starting to rise again. Goldman Sachs also thinks that “oil markets have not priced in the expected rise in demand [Chine] combined with the fall in Russian production”.
However, the impact on Russian production could remain contained given that “India continues to buy as much oil as possible from Russia”said Amitabh Kant, Indian envoy to the G20. “Our countries are also looking for ways to trade in national currencies”he added.
As such, note that 52 Iranian banks and 106 Russian banks connected last week through the Russian equivalent of the SWIFT network, known as the Financial Message Transfer System (SPFS).
The twilight of American monetary hegemony
The war in Ukraine is only the visible part of a much larger hybrid war against Russia, Iran and China. Three countries that have sworn to reduce the share of the dollar in international trade.
This is a casus belli for Washington, which derives most of its imperial privileges from the fact that energy and many raw materials are sold in dollars.
As many dollars as the exporting nations return to the United States by investing in its government debt. Almost a quarter of US debt. This so-called “petrodollar” circuit allows the United States to post a chronically negative trade balance without their exchange rate collapsing.
But rather than stopping the sling against the dollar, the war in Ukraine seems to reinforce it. We can see it through central bank gold purchases. We hadn’t seen this since 1967:
Central banks are bracing for such bleak times that gold could return to center stage.
This has happened in every world war. Overnight, fiat currencies are no longer accepted. Hence the Bretton Woods conference in 1944 by the allied nations to decide on the new version of the international monetary system.
The United States imposed its views after waiting for Europe and Russia to tear each other apart.
“If we see that Germany is winning, we have to help Russia. But if Russia is winning, we must help Germany, so that they kill each other as much as possible, although I don’t want to see Hitler victorious under any circumstances., declared Harry Truman in 1941, who would become President of the United States from 1945 to 1953.
Bis repeat? Are we moving towards an international reserve currency? Absolutely, because trading in national currencies has its limits. Gold is as always a candidate and has been on the mend for several months.
But let’s be serious, the yellow metal is a usurper who cannot oil world trade. It is way too heavy. Checking its purity is also a very expensive problem.
Conversely, Bitcoin fills all the boxes. It can be sent anywhere instantly and almost free.
It is also a payment network as well as a currency. Two in one. Moreover, it is resistant to censorship, unlike the SWIFT network.
The icing on the cake, his stateless nature does not benefit any particular nation. Hold!
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