Bitcoin flirts with $73,000, bets hesitate between 84,000 and 55,000

Bitcoin has just posted its strongest bullish surge in five months, but the prediction markets are still refusing to declare victory. After jumping 8.7% on Wednesday, BTC climbed to $71,556 on Thursday, gaining 3.26% on the day and regaining levels lost since 1^er June. Behind this spectacular awakening, a paradox emerges: Myriad shifts towards optimism, while Polymarket and Kalshi remain cautious about distant deadlines. Between short buybacks and decisive resistance at $70,284, the rally has yet to prove that it can become a true trend.

The collapse of bearish positions turns the market into an indecisive duel

While bitcoin has just reached $72,000, the Myriad prediction market has seen a realignment of expectations in the very short term. Until a few days ago, the betting community displayed an overwhelming bearish conviction, attributing around 70% chance to a free fall scenario towards $55,000. Wednesday’s session swept away this certainty, because the probabilities immediately rebalanced to show a strict 50-50, hovering around a 52% chance for a push up to $84,000 versus a 48% chance for a return to $55,000.

Therefore, the mechanics of execution of this specific contract accentuates the tension, since it does not include any calendar expiration date. The market will be decided at the exact moment when the BTC/USDT spot price on the Binance exchange touches one of the two limits, i.e. $84,000 or $55,000.

This sudden recovery in the probabilities on Myriad reflects less a fundamental revival than a technical capitulation in the face of the violence of the movement. Wednesday’s 8.7% jump was bitcoin’s biggest daily rise in nearly six months, forcing bearish investors to urgently buy back their hedges.

Thus, the data shows that the overall volume of prediction markets is reaching all-time highs, precisely because professional traders use them as hedging instruments against their actual positions in derivatives markets. The change in odds is therefore akin to an assessment of the victims caught behind by the rise rather than a plebiscite for a lasting upward cycle.

Several key factors explain the specificity of this arbitrage dynamic on Myriad:

• A mechanical risk adjustment: the realignment of the odds results from the forced redemption of short positions after crossing $69,000;
• The absence of time constraints: the contract is resolved only when a level is reached, which pushes traders to react to each major impulse;
• The role of synthetic hedging: operators use Myriad to neutralize the risk of sudden liquidations suffered on their leveraged positions.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the resistance of long-term contracts reflects the distrust of bitcoin investors

If the very short term has been swept away by the rise, more distant maturities retain stubborn skepticism. On Polymarket, the flagship contract relating to the end-of-year price valued last week at 56% probability that bitcoin will touch $55,000 before December 31, giving only a 51% chance of reaching $75,000.

The Kalshi platform displayed a similar delay on the reality of the spot market, attributing only a 54% chance to the passage of $67,500 in August and 31% for $70,000, two thresholds which were nevertheless pulverized during Wednesday’s surge. Even on Polymarket’s August betscrossing $75,000 only had a 47% probability for $12 million in volume.

The odds grid shows a rapid decline in confidence as the targets rise: 93% for $72,500, 59% for $75,000, 31% for $77,500, before collapsing to 15% for $80,000 and a paltry 1% for the $100,000 threshold.

Long-term markets refuse to give in to the prevailing FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). Indeed, the record volumes observed can be explained by the fact that portfolio managers are taking advantage of the rebound to lock in cheap insurance prices rather than to accumulate risk.

Faced with the critical threshold of $70,284, the specter of false signals from 2025 and 2026 reappears

Purely graphic analysis now requires absolute vigilance around the reloading zone. Thus, the true technical breakline lies at $70,284, which represents the lower bound of a major resistance band on the daily charts. A validated daily close above this demarcation would clear the way towards $73,245.

Conversely, the inability to maintain the support of $68,000 would reintegrate the asset within the compression wedge which has imprisoned the price since June. It should be clearly recalled that this narrow compressive structure is strictly identical to that which preceded the violent stalls observed in October 2025 and January 2026.

The significant gap between spot market momentum and the hold of long-term prediction contracts illustrates the complex maturity of today’s market. If the forced liquidation of short sellers allowed bitcoin to momentarily emerge from its summer lethargy, the sustainability of this movement will depend on the ability of buyers to convert the resistance at $70,284 into unshakeable support. Otherwise, the lack of commitment to end-of-year derivatives is a reminder that institutional capital is favoring caution, seeing this increase as temporary relief rather than the start of a new phase of expansion.