Bitcoin falls back below $66,000, driven by a shock from the energy markets. The rise in oil prices is reigniting inflationary pressures and reshuffling the cards for monetary expectations. This movement recalls a now well-established reality: cryptos evolve in close correlation with macroeconomic dynamics. In this context, investors are adjusting their exposure to an environment that has become more uncertain.
In brief
- Bitcoin falls below $66,000, under the effect of a macroeconomic shock from the energy markets.
- The surge in oil prices is reigniting inflationary pressures and disrupting investor expectations.
- Financial markets react with a rise in bond yields and a decline in risky assets.
- Bitcoin's technical structure is weakening, with key levels now under pressure.
Oil triggers a global inflationary shock
The decline in bitcoin comes against a backdrop of extreme tension in energy markets. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to rise rapidly, directly fueling inflation expectations.
Thus, this dynamic is “objectively unsustainable”a qualifier which reflects the extent of the perceived shock to the American economy. This situation immediately impacted the financial markets, with a marked rise in American bond yields, particularly on the 10-year bond.
Several key elements explain this chain reaction on the markets:
- A sudden increase in the price of oil linked to geopolitical tensions;
- The acceleration of inflation expectations in the United States;
- Bond yields rising sharply;
- A revision of expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy;
- The widespread decline in risky assets, including bitcoin.
This movement is accompanied by a rapid change in monetary expectations. Where investors anticipated rate cuts, the scenario is evolving towards a prolonged pause, or even a tightening. In this climate, bitcoin recorded a decline of almost 4% on the day, crossing a key psychological threshold below $66,000.
A weakened market structure for bitcoin
On a technical level, the dynamics of bitcoin are clearly deteriorating. The break of important support levels established a market structure marked by descending highs, reflecting a progressive weakening of buying pressure. Analysts now identify the $70,000 area as a difficult resistance to breach, while the next support levels lie between $65,000 and $64,000. This configuration fuels expectations of a continuation of the correction in the short term.
Another signal is attracting the attention of observers: bitcoin could record a sixth consecutive month of decline, a sequence rarely observed since 2018. This trend reflects a gradual repositioning of capital, in an environment where risky assets are losing their attractiveness in the face of the rise in bond yields. The market thus seems to be entering a waiting phase, dominated by caution and a reduction in exposure.
“Inflation expectations have deteriorated so much that the market is now trading as if an emergency rate hike by the Fed is imminent”added Adam Kobeissi, founder of Kobeissi.
In the long term, this sequence questions the ability of bitcoin to evolve independently of macroeconomic cycles. While some investors continue to view it as a hedge against inflation, recent reactions show that it remains highly correlated with overall liquidity conditions. The evolution of inflation and the decisions of the Federal Reserve should therefore remain the main catalysts in the coming weeks, in a market where the slightest surprise can quickly reverse the trend.
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