Bitcoin Falls Below $60,000! Analysis for July 9, 2024

As Bitcoin consolidated above $60,000, selling pressure came to push the BTC price below its support. Let’s analyze together the future outlook of the BTC price.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Status

After a slight rebound to $60,000, Bitcoin encountered selling pressure, causing the cryptocurrency to drop below its support area at $61,000 and then below its previous daily support. Bitcoin's price thus suffered a drop of approximately 16%. Note that this drop was fueled by the FUD caused by the sale of Bitcoin by the German and American governments as well as the start of the MTGox Bitcoin distribution. It was at $53,500 that the cryptocurrency attracted buying interest, which allowed it to re-enter its former support around $56,500.

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading around $57,300. Although the short-term structure of BTC is bearish, its medium-long term trend remains bullish. However, the latest fluctuations in Bitcoin have caused its price to fall below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which naturally casts doubt on the continuation of the latter. In terms of price dynamics, we can observe that it continues to decrease, as evidenced by the price of BTC itself as well as the oscillators. Thus, reaching the next support identified around $52,000 can be anticipated.

The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Now a trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of self-employed traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and friendly atmosphere.

Zoom on derivatives (BTCUSDT)

Bitcoin perpetual open interest has, unsurprisingly, declined in tandem with the price of its underlying. This demonstrates a reduction in speculator participation in BTC/USDT perpetual contracts. This decline was accompanied by over $46 million in long liquidations, indicating a capitulation by buyers during this decline. That said, the funding rate remained positive during these swings, showing a majority of speculators oriented towards buying.

Lately, we can observe the BTC/USDT price slightly regaining strength, causing liquidations of short positions. In addition, we note that the open interest of Bitcoin perpetual contracts has not really increased. Thus, this phenomenon suggests, at time t, a lack of confidence to continue this movement, or even the appearance of a selling conviction on the part of speculators.

The liquidation heatmap of the past few months indicates that BTC/USDT has attracted buying interest as it reaches the subtle liquidation zone around $56,000. It appears that this zone is being defended for now. Currently, the most significant liquidation zones over the past six months are on either side of Bitcoin’s price. Above the current price, we can see the $64,000 zone. However, the most obvious one is further away, at $72,300. Below the current price, we can see the very apparent zone around $50,000. If the market approaches these levels, we could see a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. These zones therefore represent major points of interest for investors.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Hypotheses

• As long as the Bitcoin price manages to stay above $53,500, we can anticipate a return of BTC above $58,500. The next resistance to consider, if the bullish movement continues, would be the $60,000 or even $61,000 area. Higher up, we can highlight $63,800. At this point, this would represent an increase of around 12%.

• If Bitcoin fails to hold above $53,500, we could see support from buying interest around $51,800. The next level to consider, if the bearish move continues, would be around $50,500. Further down, we can highlight the price range between $49,200 and $48,200. At this point, this would represent a decline of close to 15%.

Conclusion

Despite a medium-long term bullish trend, Bitcoin is facing selling pressure that has recently led to a notable decline, fueled by external factors. The current price momentum indicates a possible continuation of the decline until the next identified support. Nevertheless, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at the different key levels to confirm or deny the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential market “fake outs” and “squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve rapidly depending on other more fundamental factors.