The halving cycle, long considered the compass of the crypto market, is showing signs of running out of steam. In 2024, bitcoin will not reproduce the spectacular surges of past cycles, with performances clearly behind. This rupture intrigues analysts and rekindles a fundamental debate: is the historical model of Bitcoin changing? Between reduced volatility and market transformation, this cycle could well mark a lasting shift.
In brief
- The 2024 Bitcoin cycle marks a clear slowdown in performance compared to previous halvings.
- Historical data reveals a significant drop in yields, with only +97% this cycle.
- Market volatility is decreasing sharply, a sign that Bitcoin is maturing.
- The four-year cycle model is called into question by these developments.
A 2024 cycle significantly less efficient than its predecessors
The observation is clear: the current cycle significantly underperforms previous ones. Since the halving of 2024, bitcoin has shown growth of around 97%, far from historical performance.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, sums it up bluntly: “the fourth cycle is significantly underperforming compared to previous ones… Has this become the new normal, or just a temporary phase before a return to normal? ».
Comparative data illustrate clearly this break:
- 2012: +9,294%;
- 2016: +2,950%;
- 2020: +761%;
- 2024: +97%.
Beyond performance, market dynamics are changing significantly. Volatility, once a signature of bitcoin, is in sharp decline. The 2020 cycle had levels near 9.64%, while the current cycle peaks around 3.11%, with recent levels around 1.75%. This contraction reflects a profound change in market behavior, with more contained variations and a less explosive trajectory.
ETFs, bitcoin market timing and structural transformation
A major element distinguishes this cycle from previous ones: a historic peak for bitcoin was reached even before the halving, in March 2024, when the price exceeded $70,000. This unprecedented situation is largely explained by the arrival of spot ETFs in the United States, which anticipated and amplified institutional demand. This time lag blurs traditional benchmarks and complicates the analysis of cycles, historically built around the halving as the starting point of bullish phases.
At the same time, the structure of corrections is also evolving. The maximum drops, previously between 80% and 90%, now appear more contained. The recent drop, from around $125,000 to $60,000, represents a correction close to 50%, significantly less violent than in previous cycles. This development reinforces the idea of a deeper market, where institutional capital cushions extreme movements and gradually changes the rules of the game.
Faced with these transformations, a question arises: is the four-year cycle model disappearing or simply reinventing itself? Some observers, like Jan van Eck, are already raising the possibility of a near low point and a potential recovery by 2026. Between gradual normalization and persistent uncertainties, bitcoin seems to be entering a new phase in its history, where raw performance is giving way to stability and integration into traditional financial markets.
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