The hope of lasting institutional adoption via spot Bitcoin ETFs is encountering a sudden return of volatility. Hailed in 2024 as vectors of stability, these products have just recorded more than $680 million in net outflows in the first week of 2026. This sudden decline, in a climate of monetary uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, calls into question the solidity of their anchoring in traditional finance and raises doubts about the market's capacity to absorb shocks in the long term.
In brief
- Bitcoin ETFs suffer a loss of $681 million in the first week of January 2026.
- This capital flight was concentrated on four consecutive days of massive withdrawals, after a promising start to the week.
- Ethereum ETFs were also impacted, with $68.6 million in net outflows over the same period.
- This temporary decline could mark a phase of consolidation, while waiting for a return of confidence to the markets.
Capital flight: a dark week for Bitcoin ETFs
While bitcoin is close to $90,000, the first full week of 2026 ended with net outflows of $681 million from spot Bitcoin ETFsaccording to data published by SoSoValue.
These divestments were recorded over four consecutive sessions, from Tuesday to Friday, with a peak on Wednesday January 3, the day when withdrawals reached $486 million. The movement continued on Thursday (-398.9 million) and Friday (-249.9 million), canceling out the entries observed at the start of the week, notably on Tuesday January 2 (+471.1 million) and Friday January 5 (+697.2 million).
On the Ethereum ETF side, the weekly balance sheet is also negative, with $68.6 million in net outflows.
This data reveals a sharp reversal in market sentiment. The dynamic at the start of the year quickly gave way to a marked withdrawal movement. To better visualize the scale of flows during the week, here the key figures :
- Tuesday, January 2: +$471.1 million;
- Wednesday, January 3: -$486 million;
- Thursday, January 4: -$398.9 million;
- Friday, January 5: +$697.2 million in the morning, canceled by -$249.9 million in releases afterwards;
- The weekly total (BTC ETF): -$681 million;
- Weekly total (ETH ETF): -$68.6 million, with net assets remaining around $18.7 billion.
These massive outflows, concentrated over several days in a row, signal a lack of conviction among institutional investors, who appear to have acted with marked caution from the first signals of macroeconomic volatility.
Macroeconomic concerns and a strategic repositioning
Behind this wave of withdrawals, the overall macroeconomic environment seems to play a determining role.
Vincent Liu, chief investment officer at Kronos Research, directly attributes this change of direction to an uncertain economic context. “With rate cuts in the first quarter looking less and less likely and geopolitical risks on the rise, macroeconomic conditions have shifted into a risk-off mode”he explains.
According to him, until clearer positive signals are sent from the Federal Reserve or inflation data, caution should continue to dominate investment decisions: “until clearer signals emerge, positioning is likely to remain cautious”he adds.
In this climate of uncertainty, institutional investors seem to want to slow down their exposure to risky assets, including cryptos, although they are widely integrated into portfolios via these new ETFs. This temporary withdrawal could reflect a desire to wait for the next publications of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States, or a possible change in the Fed's communication, before recommitting capital.
However, despite this unfavorable climate, signals of structural interest persist. Indeed, Morgan Stanley has filed a request with the SEC to launch two additional crypto ETFs, one backed by bitcoin, the other by Solana. Separately, Bank of America has authorized its wealth management advisors to recommend exposures through four Bitcoin ETFs. These movements confirm that, despite the current uncertainty, institutional interest in cryptos has not completely faded.
If current flows reflect a phase of caution, some analysts maintain a bold long-term vision. According to them, bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050, driven by gradual global adoption and reinforced scarcity dynamics. In the short term, the market remains dependent on macroeconomic signals.
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