Geopolitical tensions are already reshaping global financial circuits. In this unstable context, bitcoin could change dimension. According to Bitwise, BTC would no longer just be a reserve asset comparable to gold, but a monetary tool used in strategic exchanges between states. A shift fueled by concrete cases and valuation projections which relaunch a radical hypothesis: a bitcoin capable of exceeding a million dollars.
In brief
- Bitcoin could evolve from a reserve asset to a monetary tool in a tense geopolitical context.
- An analysis by Bitwise highlights a concrete case involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
- A bitcoin toll project could generate up to $20 million per day.
- The current valuation model suggests a target of $1 million based on its role as a store of value.
Bitcoin propelled by international tensions
According to Matt Hougan, investment director at Bitwise, the current geopolitical context could profoundly transform the role of bitcoin. He asserts that “in a world where countries have militarized their financial systems, bitcoin appears to be an apolitical alternative”. This reading is based on a concrete situation involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic point for world trade.
- Iran reportedly considering imposing bitcoin toll in Strait of Hormuz;
- The amount mentioned is 1 dollar per barrel of oil;
- This mechanism would represent approximately $20 million per day in potential flows.
These elements reflect a notable evolution in the use of bitcoin, now considered as an operational tool in sensitive international exchanges. Hougan insists on this shift: BTC could go beyond its status as a passive asset to become an infrastructure used in an environment marked by economic tensions and financial restrictions.
A paradigm shift for the valuation of BTC
Bitwise's analysis is historically based on one assumption: if bitcoin captures 17% of the store of value market, estimated at $38 trillion, its price could reach $1 million.
This scenario is based on its role as “digital gold”. Hougan specifies, however, that this vision could be outdated if bitcoin acquires a broader monetary function. He then evokes a new dimension: “bitcoin could play the role of both gold and currency”.
This dual function paves the way for significant expansion of its addressable market. Hougan describes this opportunity as “out-of-the-money call option”with a still uncertain probability, but considerable potential. If this development is confirmed, current valuation models could become obsolete.
In this context, bitcoin is part of a global change in the global financial system. The emergence of alternatives to traditional infrastructure, combined with geopolitical fragmentation, could accelerate its adoption in strategic uses. This trajectory remains conditioned by complex political and economic factors, but it outlines a future where bitcoin would no longer be just a hedging asset, but an active cog in international trade.
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