Bitcoin could fall below $66,000 by April 24 according to traders

Bitcoin fell sharply, reigniting tensions across the entire crypto market. In a few hours, the correction wiped out massive positions and revealed a shift in sentiment among traders. Data from derivatives markets now indicates a significant probability of a return below $66,000 by April 24, a threshold that is now focusing the attention of short-term investors.

Derivatives markets signal bearish shift

Bitcoin fell to $65,530 after moving above $71,300, recording an 8% correction in a very short time. The move triggered a wave of liquidations, with more than $210 million in long positions wiped out on futures markets. This chain reaction illustrates the fragility of the bullish positioning that dominated until then.

At the same time, data from options markets confirm a change in perception. Professional traders now anticipate a probability of “53%” that bitcoin remains below $66,000 by April 24. This projection marks a clear shift in short-term expectations, with a repositioning towards more defensive strategies.

• The monthly expiration of $18.6 billion in options made “97% of call options are worthless”;
• The delta skew of options has reached “15%”revealing strong demand for put options;
• Mass liquidations reflect excessive leverage on long positions;
• The $66,000 threshold becomes a key technical level monitored by traders.

These elements reflect a dominance of bearish strategies in derivatives markets, often considered a leading indicator of global sentiment.

Macroeconomic pressures and political uncertainties

Beyond the dynamics specific to the crypto market, several external factors are increasing the pressure on bitcoin. The rise in the price of oil, with the barrel of WTI approaching $100, is accompanied by an increase in American bond yields, rising from 3.72% to 4.07% on five-year maturities.

This context fuels inflationary fears and reduces the appetite for risky assets. In this climate, bitcoin underperformed the S&P 500 by around 20%, illustrating a gradual disengagement of traditional investors.

On the political level, uncertainty increased with the departure of David Sacks from his role as advisor on artificial intelligence and cryptos. This development comes as discussions around a possible strategic bitcoin reserve in the United States remain unclear.

Added to this are geopolitical tensions, notably between the United States and Iran, which favor a global repositioning towards the safest assets. In this context, some market players speak of an environment where “Investors are turning away from risky assets”reflecting a phase of generalized caution.

This convergence of technical, macroeconomic and political factors outlines an uncertain short-term horizon. If derivatives markets already anticipate continued weakness in the price of bitcoin, developments will largely depend on the stabilization of the global context. Between tactical adjustments and structural repositioning, the market could enter a phase where volatility remains dominant.