Bitcoin briefly touched $78,100 after two very readable triggers: the extension of the truce with Iran announced by Donald Trump and the new massive purchase of Strategy. The market not only welcomed a geopolitical respite. He also rediscovered an old reflex: closely monitoring the return of large buyers.
In brief
- Bitcoin is rising thanks to the combined return of macro and institutional purchases.
- The extended truce relaxed the market, without erasing the geopolitical risk.
- Strategy and flows to funds give more weight to the upside.
A geopolitical detente that revives the taste for risk
The primary driver of the increase is political. On Wednesday, bitcoin was trading around $77,935, with an intraday high of $78,311, while Trump announced an extension of the truce with Iran to leave more room for discussions. At the same time, US stock futures started to rise again.
This type of reaction is not anecdotal. When geopolitical pressure eases, even temporarily, risky assets breathe a little easier and institutions accumulate massively. Bitcoin then benefits from a dual status. It remains speculative in phases of stress, but quickly becomes a performance asset again when the market starts looking for yield again.
However, we must keep a reserve. The truce is extended, not consolidated. Reuters reported again on Wednesday that it remained unclear whether all parties would actually follow this extension, and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have not disappeared from the picture. So the market bought relief, not lasting peace.
Strategy restores an upward base
The other catalyst is much more concrete. Strategy added 34,164 BTC for approximately $2.54 billion, its largest purchase since November 2024. The company now has 815,061 bitcoins in reserve, with an average acquisition cost of $75,527. At this price level, its position modestly returns to positive territory.
What matters here is not just the size of the check. This is the message it sends. When Strategy buys back so strongly after a period of volatility, it transforms a simple price recovery into a signal of conviction. The market sees this as validation. Not an absolute certainty, but a more solid psychological floor.
This changes the reading of the movement. Without Strategy, the rise could have looked like an opportunistic rebound on geopolitical news. With Strategy, it takes on another texture. It also becomes a story of absorbed supply, committed cash flow and reinforced scarcity, which speaks much more to institutional investors.
Flows confirm it's not just a technical rebound for bitcoin
The third element, more discreet but still more important, comes from flows. CoinShares' latest weekly report shows $1.4 billion in net inflows into crypto investment products, the best week since January. Bitcoin captured 1.116 billion dollars, and Ether 328 million.
This detail changes everything, or almost. An increase fueled only by derivatives can quickly run out. An increase accompanied by flows into funds generally holds up better over time, because it reflects broader and more disciplined demand. Here, the market was not content to speculate on a geopolitical title. He put capital back to work.
CoinShares also notes that total assets under management have increased to $155 billion. The United States dominated entries, while Switzerland was an exception with significant exits. In other words, the movement is clear, but not perfectly uniform. The rally exists. The consensus is not complete.
The sequel will therefore depend less on the figure of 78,000 dollars than on the credibility of the scenario which carries it. If the truce holds and flows remain sustained, the market can continue to advance. If the geopolitical front tightens again or if the institutional momentum wanes, the awakening could be brutal. For the moment, Bitcoin has regained altitude. He still has to prove he can stay there. Be careful, however: the expiration of $7.9 billion in options could well reshuffle the market cards.
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