Bitcoin: Can October extend the bull market?
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Bitcoin enters October around $85,000 after gaining nearly 9% in September. Its seasonal history and several on-chain indicators support the scenario of a “Uptober”but profit taking is already reaching an unprecedented level in 2026.

A gigantic bull gallops up a financial road with a towering Bitcoin coin at its side. They have just traveled down a long ascending ramp bathed in orange light. Behind them, traders and investors are still celebrating the progress. But in front of them begins a huge suspension bridge leading to a new, higher mountain. At the entrance to the bridge floats a large page of an entirely graphic calendar, without letters or numbers, while orange autumn leaves are blown away by the wind. The bull slows down slightly and plants one hoof in the ground. Bitcoin remains oriented forward, as if ready to continue.

In brief

  • Bitcoin enters October around $85,000 after a positive September.
  • The seasonal history reinforces the scenario of a new “Uptober”.
  • The adjusted MVRV sends a signal consistent with a bullish regime.
  • US Bitcoin ETFs continue to support spot demand.
  • A break of $87,000 would strengthen the bullish scenario, while $83,000 remains key support.

Bitcoin in October benefits from a favorable history

Bitcoin has remained between $83,000 and $85,000 in recent days. This consolidation comes after a rapid rise from $76,000, followed by a peak near $87,000.

October maintains a favorable reputation among investors. Over the last 13 years observed, ten Octobers have ended in the green. The three exceptions, however, remind us that this seasonality does not constitute a guarantee.

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Several data explain the return of the Uptober scenario:

  • Ten of the last thirteen Octobers have been positive;
  • September 2026 should also close in the green;
  • Bitcoin is up about 40% since its August low;
  • ETFs attracted several billion dollars in a few weeks;
  • BTC nevertheless remains 33% below its October 2025 record.

The precedent of October 2025 calls for caution, because bitcoin then set a record above $126,000 before ending the month down around 4%. This poor performance put an end to a series of seven consecutive green Octobers.

An MVRV indicator signals a change in speed

The bullish argument is not based solely on seasonality. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. observed also an evolution of the adjusted MVRV indicator, which compares the valuation of bitcoin to its average acquisition cost on the blockchain.

The ratio between its 30- and 365-day averages crossed its own annual average on August 20. It then rose above the threshold of 1 on September 20. According to the analyst, this movement marks the transition from an early bullish phase to a real bullish regime.

Since 2012, this configuration has only occurred six times. In four of the five previous comparable signals, bitcoin was worth more at the end of the bull run than at the time of the breakout.

The exception dates back to August 2015. The bullish phase then lasted only 16 days before a return to a less favorable regime. The sample therefore remains too limited to transform this signal into a reliable forecast.

Bitcoin ETFs support spot demand

THE flows to US Bitcoin ETFs constitute a second favorable argument. Spot funds notably received $433 million on September 18, after $159.5 million the day before. They had already attracted 3.52 billion in August.

Over a period of three weeks, subscriptions would have approached 3.8 billion dollars. This demand accompanied BTC’s move above $86,000 and its return to an eight-month high.

We also notice a decrease in bitcoins available on exchange platforms. Such withdrawals may reduce the supply immediately available for sale, but they do not systematically mean that holders are accumulating. Some transfers correspond to changes of depositary or institutional movements.

The market also remains dependent on macroeconomic conditions. A further rise in bond yields, more restrictive monetary policy or a slowdown in flows into ETFs could quickly weaken the expected seasonal effect.

Profit-taking already threatens Uptober

The main warning comes from the profits accrued by holders. On September 26, the market’s unrealized profit margin reached 33%, its highest level since December 2024.

At the same time, around 25,700 BTC were spent with a profit, which is the highest volume in 2026. At the current price, these bitcoins are worth more than $2.1 billion.

“This combination generally signals a weakening of the upward movement”, estimated Julio Moreno, Director of Research at CryptoQuant. It therefore increases the risk of a correction as holders secure their gains.

The $87,000 threshold now represents the first visible resistance. Its crossing would reinforce the scenario of a bullish continuation in October. Conversely, a break of the $83,000 zone could bring bitcoin back towards $80,000. Uptober remains statistically credible, but its achievement will depend more on new buyers than on the calendar.

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